Treviso vs Giana Erminio: match statistics

Treviso are favorites: they have won 2 of their 3 home matches and remain unbeaten, while Giana Erminio have yet to win away and have lost 2 of 3 matches. The hosts are unbeaten in their last 5 matches, scoring 6 goals and conceding 4; the visitors have failed to win during this period and have conceded 7 goals. Treviso’s defensive strength is a key advantage: they concede an average of just 0.33 goals per home match and have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games, while Giana average only 0.33 goals scored away from home. The quality of chances created also favors the hosts: their home xG is 1.73, while their opponents’ away xG against is 1.98. The visitors do generate an away xG of 1.57, but they have failed to score in 67% of those matches, limiting their chances of breaking down Treviso’s solid defence.

In Treviso’s home matches, both teams scored in 100% of cases, with the hosts averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded. Giana Erminio scored just 0.33 goals per away match and failed to score in 67% of those games, which is the main argument against BTTS - Yes. However, their last 5 matches paint a different picture: they averaged 1.0 goals scored, and both teams scored in 80% of those games, compared with 60% for Treviso. The case for an away goal is also supported by Giana’s away xG of 1.57, while Treviso have allowed 1.66 xG at home. Therefore, BTTS - Yes is marginally more likely, although Giana’s poor away scoring record limits confidence in this pick.

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: this line has held in 75% of Treviso’s matches and 100% of Giana Erminio’s. Giana averages just 0.33 goals in the away matches considered and failed to score in 67% of them, limiting the chances of a high-scoring game. On the other hand, Treviso averages 16 shots and generates an xG of 1.86, giving the hosts the potential to score one or two goals. Caution around the lower line is warranted, as Over 2.5 goals landed in 40% of the teams’ last five matches, although Treviso’s earlier games were more often high-scoring. A projected total of 2.30 goals therefore points more clearly to Under 3.5 goals than Under 2.5.

A half-time draw is likely, as Treviso went into the break level in 3 of their 4 home matches and have not conceded before half-time in their last 5 games. Giana Erminio have been trailing at the break in all 3 of their away matches, but Treviso have not led at half-time in any of their home games, weakening the case for the hosts to lead at the break. Both teams have drawn 3 of their last 5 matches, while the visitors have kept a clean sheet after the break in all 3 away games, so the draw could hold through to full-time. Treviso have a case for victory: they have averaged 1.8 points across their last 5 matches compared with Giana’s 0.6, and their xG is 1.86 against 1.98 xG conceded by the visitors. Despite this advantage, the teams’ frequent draws and Giana’s effective second-half defending make X/X a marginally stronger pick than 1/1.