Treviso vs Pro Vercelli: match statistics

Treviso have a clear home advantage: they won their only home match to date, kept a clean sheet and have yet to concede a goal on home soil. Pro Vercelli, meanwhile, lost their only away fixture, failed to score and allowed opponents an average xG of 1.64, while Treviso create chances worth an average of 1.18 xG at home. The hosts have been inconsistent recently, recording just 1 win and conceding 6 goals in their last five matches, but their opponents have also won only once and scored just 4 goals during that period. The Vercelli side register more shots on target away from home, averaging 5 compared to 3, but their lack of cutting edge is reflected in their failure to score on the road. Treviso’s defensive advantage at home, combined with the visitors’ poor finishing, points to a cautious home win.

The strongest signal is Pro Vercelli’s very poor scoring efficiency: the visitors have not scored a goal in their season average so far, and they have failed to find the net in 100% of their matches to date. Treviso have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games and concede just 0.5 goals on average, further reducing the visitors’ chances of scoring. The recent form of both sides also does not point to an open game, as Treviso average 0.6 goals and Pro Vercelli 0.8 goals across their last five appearances. Although the visitors’ xG over their last five matches stands at 1.59, their zero seasonal scoring efficiency and 0% BTTS record are more significant than the number of chances created alone. Treviso’s 50% BTTS rate and Pro Vercelli’s 0%, compared with the league average of 47%, support a scenario in which at least one team fails to score — BTTS - No.

The profile of both teams clearly points to a low-scoring game: Treviso average 1.0 goal at home, while Pro Vercelli have yet to score away from home. In their last five matches, the hosts have scored just 0.6 goals per game and the visitors 0.8, with total scores averaging only 1.8 goals for both teams. Both sides have so far recorded 100% of their matches below 2.5 and below 3.5 goals, while in their last five appearances, the percentage of games finishing Over 2.5 stands at just 20% for each team. Higher xG figures of 1.39 for Treviso and 1.59 for Pro Vercelli over their last five matches leave room for 1-2 goals, but do not support a four-goal scenario. Under 3.5 therefore has the strongest backing, both in terms of current finishing form and the low league average of 2.0 goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time, as both teams were level at the break in 60% of their last five matches. The first halves were very low-scoring: Treviso averaged 0.2 goals in them, while Pro Vercelli also averaged 0.2, and the visitors kept a clean sheet before the break in 80% of their recent matches. However, Treviso have the edge at home in terms of seasonal results, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded, while Pro Vercelli are yet to score away from home and have lost 100% of their away fixtures. This advantage increases the hosts’ chances of completing a turnaround after a half-time draw, but their current form stands at just 0.8 points per game, with 60% defeats in their last five appearances. After the break, both teams are more frequently involved in matches featuring a goal, with the percentage of such second halves standing at 80% for each side, but the records in this period remain evenly balanced, supporting a final share of the points.