Triestina vs Novara: match statistics
Triestina displays impressive home form with a 50% win rate and an average of 1.92 goals per match, making them the favorite for this fixture. The hosts demonstrate a significantly better shooting efficiency (15% conversion rate) and an advantage in expected goals (xG 1.69 vs 1.30), indicating higher quality of chances created. Novara is characterized by a defensive tactic with as many as 75% draws away from home, but their offense is weak – only 0.92 goals on average per away match and 33% of matches without a goal scored. The hosts' goal difference in home matches (+10) significantly surpasses Novara's away goal difference (-1), and both teams' form in the last five matches is identical (1.2 points per match), suggesting an overall balanced disposition. Considering Triestina's home advantage, their better offensive efficiency, and Novara's tendency to draw, the most probable scenario is a home win, although a draw remains a realistic alternative.
Triestina vs Novara: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Triestina played Novara in Serie C Group A (Italy). The match was played on 15 February 2026. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
Triestina: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. Novara: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Triestina scores 1.08 and concedes 1.35 goals per match. Novara scores 0.92 and concedes 1.00. League average: 2.25 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Triestina 54%, Novara 54%. Over 2.5: Triestina 46%, Novara 27%. League level: BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 40%.
xG, shots and style
Triestina has higher xG: 1.55 vs 1.39. Triestina: 11.7 shots per match, Novara: 10.9.
Match halves
Triestina: half-time lead 15%, second-half goals 0.77. Novara: half-time lead 23%, second-half goals 0.42.
Goals by minute
Triestina: 61-75 (9 goals). Novara: 31-45+ (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie C Group A: 2.25 goals per match, BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 40%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 0.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Triestina displays impressive home form with a 50% win rate and an average of 1.92 goals per match, making them the favorite for this fixture. The hosts demonstrate a significantly better shooting efficiency (15% conversion rate) and an advantage in expected goals (xG 1.69 vs 1.30), indicating higher quality of chances created. Novara is characterized by a defensive tactic with as many as 75% draws away from home, but their offense is weak – only 0.92 goals on average per away match and 33% of matches without a goal scored. The hosts' goal difference in home matches (+10) significantly surpasses Novara's away goal difference (-1), and both teams' form in the last five matches is identical (1.2 points per match), suggesting an overall balanced disposition. Considering Triestina's home advantage, their better offensive efficiency, and Novara's tendency to draw, the most probable scenario is a home win, although a draw remains a realistic alternative.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Triestina | Novara | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Triestina is 17% better for: goals scored per match.
1.08 goals / match - Triestina · 0.92 goals / match - Novara
Novara is 35% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.35 goals / match - Triestina · 1 goals / match - Novara
Triestina scores in 58% of matches (15 of 26 matches), while Novara keeps a clean sheet in 31% (8 of 26 matches).
Novara scores in 65% of matches (17 of 26 matches), while Triestina keeps a clean sheet in 12% (3 of 26 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Triestina
Over / Under - Novara
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Novara is 28% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.96 pts / match - Triestina · 1.23 pts / match - Novara
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Triestina - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 15% of matches and wins 27%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Novara - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 23% of matches and wins 15%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (9 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Triestina
Novara
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie C Group A).
Teams vs league
| Triestina | Liga | Novara | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.42 | 2.25 | ▼ 1.92 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 54% | 49% | ▲ 54% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 46% | 40% | ▼ 27% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 12% | 30% | • 31% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 58% | 65% | ▼ 58% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 77% | 71% | ▼ 62% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Triestina 0 - 1 - 0 Novara. Average goals 0.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Triestina vs Novara?
The Serie C Group A match finished Triestina 0:1 Novara. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Triestina vs Novara?
Triestina score 1.08 goals per game on average and Novara 0.92. The Serie C Group A average is 2.25 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 40% of games. Both teams score in 54% of Triestina's matches and 54% of Novara's.
What form are Triestina and Novara in?
Over the last 5 games Triestina have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Novara 1-3-1 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Triestina vs Novara?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Triestina vs Novara: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.