Triglav vs Krka: match statistics

Triglav are in 2nd place and have won 4 of their last 5 matches, while 14th-placed Krka have lost 4 times over the same period. At home, Triglav have won 83% of their matches and score an average of 2.33 goals, while Krka have lost 86% of their away matches and concede an average of 2.14 goals. Triglav also pose a greater attacking threat: their home xG is 1.98, compared with Krka’s away xG of 1.19, and they average 7.83 shots on target per match against Krka’s 2.57. The hosts have kept a clean sheet in 83% of their home matches, while Krka have failed to score in 43% of their away games. These differences clearly point to a Triglav win.

The strongest case for at least one team failing to score is Triglav’s 60% clean-sheet rate at home, alongside Krka’s average of just 0.71 goals scored away. The visitors failed to score in 43% of their away matches, and their average of 2.57 shots on target is well below Triglav’s 5.2. The hosts have a strong chance of scoring, averaging 1.6 goals at home, while Krka concede 2.14 away. Over their last five matches, Triglav conceded an average of 0.8 goals and Krka scored 1.0, which slightly improves the assessment of Krka’s attack but does not overturn the hosts’ defensive advantage. The BTTS - Yes rates are 40% and 43%, respectively, making a match in which at least one side fails to score the more likely scenario.

Triglav average 1.6 goals per match and have raised that figure to 2.4 over their last 5 games; Krka concede an average of 2.14 goals, so the hosts should create most of the danger. At the same time, Krka score just 0.71 goals per match and have failed to score in 43% of their games, while Triglav have kept a clean sheet in 60% of matches. Despite the hosts’ advantage, at least 4 goals were scored in only 20% of Triglav’s matches and 14% of Krka’s. A forecast of 2.05 home goals and 0.65 away goals gives a total of 2.70, making Under 3.5 goals the strongest pick.

The most likely outcome is a draw at half-time and a Triglav win at full-time. The hosts were level at the break in 3 of their 5 home matches, and scored an average of just 0.2 goals before half-time across their last 5 games, which argues for caution when backing them to take an early lead. Their advantage is more pronounced after the break: they averaged 2.2 second-half goals in their last 5 matches, while Krka conceded an average of 1.2 over the same period. Triglav’s full-time form also supports a win: they won 4 of their last 5 matches, while Krka lost 4 of 5. A home lead at the break remains a significant alternative, as Krka went into half-time trailing in 3 of their last 5 matches.