Tukums II vs Mārupe: match statistics
Tukums II vs Mārupe: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Tukums II played Mārupe in 1. Liga (Latvia). The match was played on 9 May 2026. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
Tukums II: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match. Mārupe: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Tukums II scores 1.40 and concedes 2.40 goals per match. Mārupe scores 2.00 and concedes 0.83. League average: 3.54 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Tukums II 80%, Mārupe 33%. Over 2.5: Tukums II 80%, Mārupe 67%. League level: BTTS 61%, Over 2.5 71%.
xG, shots and style
Mārupe has higher xG: 1.67 vs 1.46. Tukums II: 10.0 shots per match, Mārupe: 12.5.
Match halves
Tukums II: half-time lead 40%, second-half goals 0.40. Mārupe: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 1.67.
Goals by minute
Tukums II: 31-45+ (3 goals). Mārupe: 76-90+ (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
1. Liga: 3.54 goals per match, BTTS 61%, Over 2.5 71%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-2. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Mārupe (5th) has a better season record than Tukums II (10th): the visitors have scored 12 and conceded 5, while the hosts have 7 and conceded 12. In the last 5 matches Mārupe scored 8 and conceded 5 (2–1–2), whereas Tukums II have 7 goals and as many as 12 conceded with a 1–1–3 record, indicating clearer form stability for the visitors. Away, Mārupe concedes on average 0.67 goals and keep 67% clean sheets, while Tukums II at home concede 2.00 goals on average and have only 33% clean sheets, so the defensive edge lies with the visitors. The hosts attempt more shots (11.33 per match and 7 on target) and have higher xG (1.6 vs 1.33), but they also have a much higher xG against (2.2 vs 1.16) and are more prone to conceding. Considering the average points from the last 5 matches (1.4 for Mārupe vs 0.8 for Tukums) and the visitors’ superior defense, I favor a Mārupe win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
xG and recent form indicate both teams have goal potential: Tukums II has season xG 2.01 (last 5 xG 1.45), and Mārupe has season xG 1.33 (last 5 xG 1.50), suggesting ~1–2 xG created on both sides. Tukums II averages 6.0 shots on target and has a 21% conversion rate, equating to a season average of 3.33 goals per game; Mārupe records 4.67 shots on target and has scored 8 goals in the last 5 matches (1.6 avg), so the visitors can find the net as well. Conflicting signals come from seasonal BTTS and clean sheet shares: both teams have seasonBTTS 33% and seasonCS 67%, meaning historically only 1 in 3 matches ends BTTS, but the league shows BTTS 61% and an average of 3.54 goals per game, and the hosts’ last 5 matches have BTTS 80%. Considering the higher home xG (2.01 vs 1.33), recent goal stats (Tukums II conceded 12 goals in 5, Mārupe scored 8 in 5) and the league trend, I project BTTS "Yes" at 62% vs 38% and recommend a "Yes" bet.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The model projects 1.59 xG for Tukums II and 1.14 xG for Mārupe, yielding a combined expected total of 2.73 goals. Tukums II scores an average of 3.33 goals per match season-to-date (offensive xG 2.01) versus 0.67 goals for Mārupe (offensive xG 1.33); the home side averages 15.67 shots with 6.0 on target and a 21% conversion rate compared to 9.33 shots, 4.67 on target and a 7% conversion for the visitors, so the attacking advantage is clear. Season-long Over 2.5 occurrence is 100% for the hosts and 33% for the guests, and in the last 5 matches the hosts had 80% Over 2.5 and the guests 60%, with a league average of 3.54 goals per game, which supports the Over 2.5 line. From a Poisson distribution with mean λ=2.73 there is approximately a 76% probability of Over 1.5, 51% Over 2.5 and 29% Over 3.5; the strongest signal is therefore Over 1.5 (76% vs Under 24%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Tukums II possess a clear offensive edge: they average 3.33 goals per match versus Mārupe’s 0.67, with the home side’s xG at 2.01 compared to the visitors’ 1.33. At half-time the hosts average 0.67 goals while the visitors average 0.0, and Tukums II led at the break in 2 of 3 matches (67%), which strongly supports a home lead at 45 minutes. The hosts produce more on-target shots (6.0 vs 4.67) and have a substantially higher finishing rate (21% vs 7%), and their season win percentage is 67% versus the visitors’ 33%, so maintaining the lead and winning (1/1) appears the most likely outcome. At the same time Tukums II are very productive after the break — averaging 2.67 second-half goals, including 3 goals in minutes 61–75 and 4 goals in minutes 76–90 — therefore I assign a moderate chance to a turnaround and win after trailing at half-time (2/1 13%). Mārupe average 1.33 goals after the break with 2 goals in the 46–60 interval, so I also allocate 13% to the 1/2 scenario; however the strongest signal remains 1/1.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Tukums II | Mārupe | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 56% | 43% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.25 | 0.38 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Mārupe is 75% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - Tukums II · 1.4 pts / match - Mārupe
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Mārupe is 43% better for: goals scored per match.
1.4 goals / match - Tukums II · 2 goals / match - Mārupe
Mārupe is 189% better for: goals conceded per match.
2.4 goals / match - Tukums II · 0.83 goals / match - Mārupe
Tukums II scores in 100% of matches (5 of 5 matches), while Mārupe keeps a clean sheet in 67% (4 of 6 matches).
Mārupe scores in 83% of matches (5 of 6 matches), while Tukums II keeps a clean sheet in 20% (1 of 5 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Tukums II
Over / Under - Mārupe
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Mārupe is 25% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.2 pts / match - Tukums II · 1.5 pts / match - Mārupe
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Tukums II - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 40% of matches and wins 20%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Mārupe - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 60% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 20% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.4 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 20% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (3 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (4 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Tukums II
Mārupe
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (1. Liga).
Teams vs league
| Tukums II | Liga | Mārupe | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.80 | 3.54 | ▼ 2.83 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 80% | 61% | ▼ 33% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 80% | 71% | ▼ 67% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 20% | 23% | ▲ 67% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 100% | 71% | ▼ 50% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 100% | 85% | ▼ 83% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Other recorded players
Away team
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- Tukums IIGoalDāvis Cālbergs
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Tukums II 0 - 0 - 2 Mārupe. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Tukums II vs Mārupe?
The 1. Liga match finished Tukums II 1:2 Mārupe. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Tukums II and Mārupe?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Tukums II won 0, Mārupe won 2 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Tukums II vs Mārupe?
Tukums II score 1.40 goals per game on average and Mārupe 2.00. The 1. Liga average is 3.54 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 71% of games. Both teams score in 80% of Tukums II's matches and 33% of Mārupe's.
What form are Tukums II and Mārupe in?
Over the last 5 games Tukums II have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Mārupe 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Tukums II vs Mārupe?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Tukums II vs Mārupe: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.