Tukums vs FS Jelgava: match statistics
Tukums vs FS Jelgava: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Tukums played FS Jelgava in Virsliga (Latvia). The match was played on 1 May 2026. Final score: 5:0.
Current form
Tukums: 0-3-2, 0.60 points/match. FS Jelgava: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Tukums scores 1.33 and concedes 1.78 goals per match. FS Jelgava scores 0.78 and concedes 1.89. League average: 2.78 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Tukums 100%, FS Jelgava 44%. Over 2.5: Tukums 67%, FS Jelgava 33%. League level: BTTS 60%, Over 2.5 49%.
xG, shots and style
FS Jelgava has higher xG: 1.23 vs 1.18. Tukums: 9.4 shots per match, FS Jelgava: 9.7.
Match halves
Tukums: half-time lead 22%, second-half goals 0.67. FS Jelgava: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.22.
Goals by minute
Tukums: 31-45+ (4 goals). FS Jelgava: 0-15 (2 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Virsliga: 2.78 goals per match, BTTS 60%, Over 2.5 49%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 5 previous H2H matches were available: 0-3-2. Average goals 2.40, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I forecast a draw because both teams generate a similar number of expected chances — Tukums averages 1.2 xG at home while FS Jelgava posts 1.38 xG away, indicating balanced goal-scoring potential. Defensively Jelgava has the edge: as visitors they concede only 0.75 goals per game on average and keep clean sheets in 25% of matches, whereas Tukums concedes 1.6 goals at home and has recorded no clean sheets (0%). Offensively the hosts are more efficient — Tukums scores 1.2 goals at home on average, records 4 shots on target per match and has a 13% conversion rate, and they have no goalless home games (0%), while Jelgava scores 0.75 goals away with just a 7% conversion. In the last 5 matches Tukums has scored 8 and conceded 10, yielding 0.6 points per game, while Jelgava has 4 scored and 6 conceded with 0.8 points per game; this shows a slight advantage to the visitors in points but not clear dominance. Considering the high draw rate for the home side (60% draws for Tukums) and 50% draws for Jelgava away, the most likely outcome is a share of points: draw 50%, home win 30%, away win 20%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Tukums concedes an average of 2.8 goals per match this season and has no clean sheets (0% CS); in the last 5 matches they scored 8 and conceded 10 (avg 1.6 scored, 2.0 conceded), with BTTS in those 5 fixtures at 100%. FS Jelgava have a season BTTS of 50% and BTTS of 40% in the last 5 matches; in their last 5 they scored 4 and conceded 6 (avg 0.8 and 1.2), and seasonally they score 0.75 goals per game. Both teams have xG_for above 1.1 (Tukums 1.12, Jelgava 1.38) and xG_against above 1.65 (1.65 and 1.68), indicating both create and allow chances; the league averages 2.78 goals per match and 60% BTTS, which further supports a Goal/Goal scenario. Jelgava averages 11.5 shots (3.0 on target), Tukums 8.2 (2.8 on target), and despite Jelgava's lower conversion (7% vs 10%) the volume of chances favors goals from both sides. For these reasons I pick BTTS - Yes as the strongest signal and estimate probability around 70% for Yes and 30% for No.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Expected xG is 1.12 for Tukums and 1.38 for FS Jelgava, totaling 2.50, which points to a moderate goal count. A Poisson model for total xG=2.50 translates to probabilities of Over 1.5 ≈71%, Over 2.5 ≈46% and Over 3.5 ≈24%. Seasonally Tukums scores 0.8 and concedes 2.8 per match, while in the last 5 fixtures they averaged 1.6 goals scored and 2.0 conceded (total 3.6) and 80% of those 5 matches finished Over 2.5. FS Jelgava scores 0.75 and concedes 0.75 on the season, has 0% Over 2.5 matches this season and 25% clean sheets, which reduces the risk of a very high-scoring game. Considering the total xG=2.50, the large disparity in Tukums’ concession averages (2.8 vs 0.75) and the model giving ~76% chance of Under 3.5, the strongest data-driven signal is to play the under at the 3.5 line.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I project 2/2 as the strongest scenario (45%) — the visitors lead at the break in 50% of matches and have a 100% rate of clean sheets at half-time, while the hosts are behind at half-time in 60% of their games. The visitors generate more chances: average xG for the visitors is 1.38 versus 1.12 for the hosts, and average shots are 11.5 versus 8.2, which increases the likelihood of maintaining the lead. The hosts concede an average of 2.8 goals per match and allow an average of 1.2 goals in the first half, which weakens their prospects for the final result. Therefore, visitor-win variants (2/2 45% and X/2 20%) total 65% probability, whereas home-win scenarios are marginal (total 6%) due to no wins in the last five home matches and a lower average points per game: 0.6 for the hosts versus 1.25 for the visitors.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Tukums | FS Jelgava | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 30% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
FS Jelgava is 33% better for: last-5 form.
0.6 pts / match - Tukums · 0.8 pts / match - FS Jelgava
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Tukums is 71% better for: goals scored per match.
1.33 goals / match - Tukums · 0.78 goals / match - FS Jelgava
Tukums is 6% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.78 goals / match - Tukums · 1.89 goals / match - FS Jelgava
Tukums scores in 100% of matches (9 of 9 matches), while FS Jelgava keeps a clean sheet in 11% (1 of 9 matches).
FS Jelgava scores in 56% of matches (5 of 9 matches), while Tukums keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 9 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Tukums
Over / Under - FS Jelgava
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
FS Jelgava is 33% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1 pts / match - Tukums · 1.33 pts / match - FS Jelgava
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Tukums - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 22% of matches and wins 0%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
FS Jelgava - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 22%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -2 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (4 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (2 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -6 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Tukums
FS Jelgava
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Virsliga).
Teams vs league
| Tukums | Liga | FS Jelgava | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.11 | 2.78 | ▼ 2.67 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 100% | 60% | ▼ 44% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 67% | 49% | ▼ 33% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 0% | 20% | ▼ 11% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 89% | 76% | ▲ 78% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 78% | 84% | ▼ 78% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (5): Tukums 0 - 3 - 2 FS Jelgava. Average goals 2.40, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Tukums vs FS Jelgava?
The Virsliga match finished Tukums 5:0 FS Jelgava. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Tukums and FS Jelgava?
In the last 5 head-to-head matches Tukums won 0, FS Jelgava won 2 and 3 ended level. These games averaged 2.40 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Tukums vs FS Jelgava?
Tukums score 1.33 goals per game on average and FS Jelgava 0.78. The Virsliga average is 2.78 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 49% of games. Both teams score in 100% of Tukums's matches and 44% of FS Jelgava's.
What form are Tukums and FS Jelgava in?
Over the last 5 games Tukums have a 0-3-2 record (0.60 points per game) and FS Jelgava 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Tukums vs FS Jelgava?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.