Tulsa Roughnecks vs Detroit City FC: match statistics

Detroit City FC sit higher in the table, fifth compared with ninth, and have collected 10 points in their last five matches, while Tulsa have earned 7. The visitors are significantly more active offensively away from home, averaging 13 shots and 4.78 shots on target per match, compared with 10.44 and 2.67 for the hosts, while their xG stands at 1.55 versus 1.24. Tulsa defend very well at home, however, conceding just 0.67 goals per game and keeping a clean sheet in 56% of matches, whereas Detroit concede an average of 1.44 goals away from home. The hosts draw 33% of their home matches, identical to Detroit’s away record, and both teams fail to score in 33% of such fixtures. The quality of chances gives the visitors an edge, but Tulsa’s solid defence and Detroit’s weaker away record, with just 22% wins, point to a draw as the most likely outcome.

Tulsa has recorded BTTS in only 38% of its matches this season, significantly below Detroit City’s 67% and the league average of 55%, while also keeping a clean sheet in 50% of games. The hosts concede just 0.50 goals per match on average, while their defensive xG stands at 1.00, providing a solid basis for limiting the visitors’ attacking threat. Detroit City is in good offensive form, averaging 1.60 goals and 2.03 xG across its last five appearances, so their goal remains likely. However, the key risk to BTTS is Tulsa’s attack: it has scored only 4 goals in its last five matches, averaging 0.80 per game, with an xG of 1.11. The No Goal scenario for at least one team therefore holds a slight edge, primarily due to the hosts’ solid defense and Tulsa’s recent lack of finishing efficiency.

The strongest signal is the Under 3.5 goals bet: Tulsa have not recorded a single match with at least 4 goals, while this outcome occurred in only 22% of Detroit’s matches. The hosts concede just 0.50 goals per game on average and keep a clean sheet in 50% of their appearances, which clearly limits the opponent’s scoring ceiling. Detroit have solid offensive potential, supported by an average xG of 1.55 for the season and 2.03 over their last five matches, which is why the visitors’ expected goals tally stands at 1.28. Tulsa have scored only 0.8 goals per game over their last five fixtures, despite Detroit conceding an average of 1.0 goal during this period, giving the hosts a projected total of 1.22 goals. The combined projection of 2.50 goals, along with season-long Under 3.5 goals rates of 100% for Tulsa and 78% for Detroit, supports the Under 3.5 selection.

Tulsa has a clearly superior season record: they win 75% of their matches, average 2.38 points per game, and concede just 0.50 goals, while Detroit win 22% of their matches and concede an average of 1.44 goals. The hosts also have an edge in chance quality, with an xG of 1.76 compared with the opponents’ 1.55, while their defence allows an xG of 1.00 versus Detroit’s 1.43. The first half should be cautious, as both teams have recorded a high number of half-time draws—50% and 44% of matches, respectively. However, Tulsa have been leading at the break in 60% of their last five appearances and have not been trailing at half-time on any occasion. The second phase of the match is also crucial: Tulsa have won the second half in 75% of matches and kept a clean sheet during it in 88% of cases, supporting the HT/FT 1/1 option. Detroit’s stronger recent run, with three wins in their last five matches, nevertheless increases the probability of draw and away-win alternatives.