Tulsa Roughnecks vs Rhode Island: match statistics

Tulsa Roughnecks have a clear home advantage: they win 45% of their home matches and concede just 0.64 goals on average, while Rhode Island have lost 67% of their away games. The hosts have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their home fixtures, compared with just 11% for the visitors away from home, increasing Tulsa’s chances of capitalising on their opportunities. Rhode Island do create more chances, with an average xG of 1.66 and 5.33 shots on target per away match compared with Tulsa’s 1.24 xG and 2.55 shots on target, but they also allow opponents an xG of 1.44 and concede 1.56 goals per game. Both teams have won 3 of their last 5 matches, but Tulsa have conceded just 3 goals during that span, compared with 4 conceded by Rhode Island. A closely contested, low-scoring match is expected; however, the hosts’ more solid defence and the visitors’ poor away points return support a 1 result.

Although both teams have recorded BTTS in 60% and 56% of their matches respectively this season, their recent results clearly reduce the likelihood of goals at both ends. In their last five matches, both Tulsa and Rhode Island had BTTS in just 20% of cases, while conceding an average of 0.6 and 0.8 goals per match respectively. Tulsa have a particularly solid defence: they allow opponents to score just 0.8 goals on average this season and keep a clean sheet in 40% of matches, while Rhode Island fail to score in 33% of games. The hosts should create chances, as they generate 1.98 xG and register 6.1 shots on target per match, but the most likely scenario is that at least one team—especially the visitors—will fail to score. This supports BTTS - No, which means that at least one team does not score; it does not automatically mean a 0:0 draw or that neither team will score.

Tulsa averages 1.80 goals at home, but across their last five matches they have scored just 1.40 goals and conceded only 0.60. Rhode Island have also shown a solid defensive record in their last five games, averaging 0.80 goals conceded, while only 20% of the most recent matches involving either team went Over 2.5 goals. The attacking potential remains evident, with average xG of 1.98 for the hosts and 1.66 for the visitors; however, Tulsa’s defense allows just 0.98 xG on average. On a season-long basis, 60% of Tulsa’s matches and 67% of Rhode Island’s matches finished Under 3.5 goals, while games featuring at least 4 goals accounted for 40% and 33%, respectively. The Under 3.5 goals line offers value, as the current defensive form of both teams reduces the risk of a high-scoring game, despite a realistic chance of 2-3 goals.

The strongest HT/FT scenario is a draw at half-time, as Tulsa were level after 45 minutes in 70% of their matches, compared with 56% for Rhode Island; in their last five matches, the visitors went into the break level as many as five times. A cautious opening is expected: the hosts average 0.4 goals scored and 0.3 conceded before half-time, while across their last five appearances, their first-half record stands at 0.6 goals scored and 0.0 conceded. After the break, the advantage should shift towards Tulsa, who average 1.4 goals in second halves while conceding just 0.5, whereas Rhode Island concede 1.11 goals during this period. The case for a home win in the Full-Time outcome is further supported by Tulsa’s higher attacking xG, 1.98 compared with 1.66, a better average points return of 1.9 versus 1.0, and the visitors’ defence conceding an average of 1.56 goals per match.