Tunari vs CSM Reşiţa: match statistics

CSM Reşiţa holds a clear advantage in seasonal attacking metrics: 40 goals scored versus Tunari’s 25, and an away scoring rate of 1.25 goals per game compared to the home side’s 0.92. Visitors average 1.72 xG on the road, while Tunari register 1.4 xG at home and concede 2.05 xG, indicating greater defensive vulnerability for Tunari. Shot metrics reinforce CSM Reşiţa’s edge — 13.5 average shots and 4.92 on target per away match versus Tunari’s 10.31 and 3.69, with a similar conversion rate around 9%. In the short term Tunari show a better run (6 goals and 1.6 points per game in the last 5) versus 3 goals and 0.8 pts for CSM Reşiţa, but Tunari suffer 62% home defeats and only 8% clean sheets, weakening the home advantage. Considering the quality of created chances and the visitors’ more stable defense (1.5 goals conceded away vs 1.85 at home), I favor a CSM Reşiţa win and propose a probability split of 20%-25%-55% (home-draw-away).

Tunari and CSM Reşiţa average 1.67 and 1.25 goals scored per match this season while conceding 1.2 and 1.5 respectively, indicating both teams tend to score and concede. xG reinforces this: Tunari 1.83 xG vs 1.23 xG against, CSM 1.72 xG vs 1.54 xG against — both sides create chances and are vulnerable defensively. In the last 5 matches Tunari had BTTS in 80% (4/5) and conceded on average 1.6 goals, whereas CSM recorded BTTS in 40% (2/5) and scored on average 0.6 goals, which supports a Goal/Goal scenario. Season BTTS rates are 40% for Tunari and 58% for CSM against a league average of 49%; additionally, shots on target 5.47 vs 4.92 and conversion 12% vs 9% favor the hosts having sufficient quality to force a response. Consequently I back BTTS - Yes with a probability of 64% versus 36% for No.

Based on xG I expect about 1.69 goals for Tunari (xG for 1.83 vs xG conceded by CSM Reşiţa 1.54) and 1.48 for CSM Reşiţa (away xG 1.72 vs xG conceded by hosts 1.23), i.e. ~3.17 goals total. With lambda=3.17 the Poisson distribution gives ~83% chance for Over 1.5 goals, ~61% for Over 2.5 and ~39% for Over 3.5; this aligns with seasonal Over 1.5 rates (Tunari 80%, CSM Reşiţa 83%) and high Over 0.5 (100% vs 92%). Additionally, in the last 5 matches Tunari have conceded/produced 14 goals total (avg 2.8), and Reşiţa 10 goals (avg 2.0), which supports an expectation of more than 1–2 goals. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 (estimated 83%), therefore I recommend playing the over at the 1.5 line.

Tunari holds a statistical edge: average goals per game 1.67 versus 1.25 for CSM Reşiţa and higher xG 1.83 vs 1.72, while the home side’s shot conversion rate of 12% compared to the visitors’ 9% increases the likelihood of chances being turned into goals. At Half-Time Tunari scores on average 1.07 goals and led at the break in 6 matches (40%), whereas CSM Reşiţa averages 0.75 goals by Half-Time and led only in 33% of matches, which strongly supports the hosts having the lead at the break. 87% of Tunari’s matches featured over 0.5 goals in the first half, and in the second half CSM Reşiţa concedes on average 1.0 goal versus only 0.6 conceded by Tunari, so the hosts have a greater chance of maintaining or extending a lead. Seasonal win rates—53% for the home side versus 33% for the visitors—and average points gained by Half-Time 1.6 for Tunari vs 1.58 for CSM Reşiţa confirm the 1/1 scenario as the strongest HT/FT signal.