Turan vs Sabah: match statistics

Sabah are the favorites — the visitors have scored 73 goals this season versus Turan’s 43, and away they average 2.53 goals per game while conceding 0.8, whereas Turan at home record 1.4 goals scored and 0.87 conceded. The advantage for Sabah in offensive quality is tangible: on average 5.93 shots on target and 12.6 total shots away with a 20% conversion rate, versus 4 shots on target, 10.87 total shots and 13% conversion for Turan at home. xG confirms the gap — Sabah’s away xG is 1.65 compared to the home side’s xG of 1.33, indicating the visitors generate more valuable chances; simultaneously average xG against Sabah is 1.15 versus 0.82 against Turan. Form also favors the visitors: in the last 5 matches Sabah have won 3 and average 1.8 points per game, while Turan have won only 1 and average 1.0 point per game; additionally Sabah have 0% defeats in away data, whereas Turan at home have 20% defeats and 47% of matches with a clean sheet. Considering the clear offensive superiority, better efficiency (20% vs 13%), higher xG and lower share of games without scoring (7% vs 13%) for Sabah, I back the away win.

I pick BTTS – Yes because both teams present strong offensive metrics: Turan scores 2.06 goals at home on average, Sabah 2.53 as the away side; additionally xG is 2.11 for Turan and 1.65 for Sabah, indicating realistic scoring chances for both. Although both sides have solid defensive lines (Turan concedes 0.71 goals per game, Sabah 0.8 with 41% and 47% clean sheets respectively), their seasonal BTTS rates are 47% and 53%, meaning both participate in matches with goals from both teams more often than the league average (45%). Moreover, Sabah has 73% of matches over 2.5 goals (Turan 47%), and the combined 'over2.5 and BTTS' sits at 53% for Sabah and 41% for Turan, which increases the likelihood of goal exchanges. The last 5 matches provide a mixed but supportive signal — Turan had BTTS in 60% of their last 5, Sabah in 40%, and together they scored 13 and conceded 10 goals in those games, so the most reliable signal from the data supports BTTS – Yes.

Both teams demonstrate high goal-scoring potential: Turan averages 2.06 goals per match, Sabah 2.53 (combined average 4.59 goals), and xG_for is 2.11 (Turan) and 1.65 (Sabah). To estimate expected goals I used the mean of a team’s xG_for and the opponent’s xG_against: for Turan (2.11+1.15)/2 = 1.63, for Sabah (1.65+1.03)/2 = 1.34, total xG ≈ 2.97. Season Over 1.5 rates are 71% for Turan and 80% for Sabah (average 75.5%), which provides a strong signal for Over 1.5 and justifies an 83% probability for that line. Over 2.5 is supported by seasonal rates of 47%/73% (average 60%) and xG ≈ 3.0, therefore I assign 67% to Over 2.5; Over 3.5 is more uncertain (seasonal 29%/53%, average 41%), hence a 44% chance for Over 3.5. The strongest and most reliable selection from the data is Over 1.5.

I project 2/2 (Sabah leading at Half-Time and winning the match) as the most likely scenario because the visitors led at the break in 67% of their matches and win 80% of games with 0% away defeats. Sabah averages 1.2 goals by Half-Time and 1.93 after the break, while Turan averages 1.0 goal by Half-Time and 1.47 in the second half, giving the visitors an advantage in the latter period. Turan has a higher xG (2.11 vs 1.65) and more shots (15.71 vs 12.6) and shots on target (6.24 vs 5.93), but Sabah converts more efficiently (20% vs 13%) and has a season goals per game average of 2.53 versus Turan’s 2.06. In the last 5 matches Turan records 20% wins and Sabah 60%, which confirms the visitors’ superior form. Therefore I assigned a 40% probability to 2/2 and 18% to the alternative scenario X/2; variants with the home side leading at Half-Time are assessed as less likely.