Tusker vs Gor Mahia: match statistics
Gor Mahia are showing significantly better form and statistics this season. The visitors have an impressive record of 16 wins and only 3 losses, while Tusker has won only 11 matches and lost 9. Gor Mahia's advantage in away matches is particularly significant – a 67% win rate, 42% clean sheets, and conceding an average of only 0.58 goals per game. Tusker, at home, has a negative goal difference (-4), a mere 33% win rate, and as many as 42% losses. The form of both teams in the last 5 matches also favors the visitors (2.4 points per game for Tusker vs 2.0 for Gor Mahia, but the visitors have a superior overall record). Considering all indicators, especially Gor Mahia's away dominance and Tusker's poor home form, an away win is the most probable outcome.
Tusker vs Gor Mahia: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Tusker played Gor Mahia in Kenyan Premier League (Kenya). The match was played on 19 March 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Tusker: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match. Gor Mahia: 4-1-0, 2.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Tusker scores 0.92 and concedes 1.00 goals per match. Gor Mahia scores 1.76 and concedes 0.72. League average: 2.05 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Tusker 40%, Gor Mahia 48%. Over 2.5: Tusker 32%, Gor Mahia 48%. League level: BTTS 46%, Over 2.5 34%.
xG, shots and style
Gor Mahia has higher xG: 1.50 vs 1.47. Tusker: 11.5 shots per match, Gor Mahia: 10.6.
Match halves
Tusker: half-time lead 16%, second-half goals 0.24. Gor Mahia: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 0.32.
Goals by minute
Tusker: 0-15 (13 goals). Gor Mahia: 0-15 (32 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Kenyan Premier League: 2.05 goals per match, BTTS 46%, Over 2.5 34%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Gor Mahia are showing significantly better form and statistics this season. The visitors have an impressive record of 16 wins and only 3 losses, while Tusker has won only 11 matches and lost 9. Gor Mahia's advantage in away matches is particularly significant – a 67% win rate, 42% clean sheets, and conceding an average of only 0.58 goals per game. Tusker, at home, has a negative goal difference (-4), a mere 33% win rate, and as many as 42% losses. The form of both teams in the last 5 matches also favors the visitors (2.4 points per game for Tusker vs 2.0 for Gor Mahia, but the visitors have a superior overall record). Considering all indicators, especially Gor Mahia's away dominance and Tusker's poor home form, an away win is the most probable outcome.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Tusker | Gor Mahia | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 39% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.24 | 0.43 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Gor Mahia is 44% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / match - Tusker · 2.6 pts / match - Gor Mahia
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Gor Mahia is 91% better for: goals scored per match.
0.92 goals / match - Tusker · 1.76 goals / match - Gor Mahia
Gor Mahia is 39% better for: goals conceded per match.
1 goals / match - Tusker · 0.72 goals / match - Gor Mahia
Tusker scores in 72% of matches (18 of 25 matches), while Gor Mahia keeps a clean sheet in 44% (11 of 25 matches).
Gor Mahia scores in 88% of matches (22 of 25 matches), while Tusker keeps a clean sheet in 36% (9 of 25 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Tusker
Over / Under - Gor Mahia
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Gor Mahia is 32% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.12 pts / match - Tusker · 1.48 pts / match - Gor Mahia
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Tusker - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 16% of matches and wins 44%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Gor Mahia - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 68%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 goal | 20% | 0% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 100% |
| No goal | 80% | 100% |
| Goal difference | +1 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 goal | 0% | 0% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 100% |
| No goal | 100% | 100% |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (13 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (18). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (32 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (14). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Tusker
Gor Mahia
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Kenyan Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Tusker | Liga | Gor Mahia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.92 | 2.05 | ▲ 2.48 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 40% | 46% | ▲ 48% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 32% | 34% | ▲ 48% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 36% | 34% | ▲ 44% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 36% | 22% | ▲ 28% |
| Goal after half-time | • 24% | 24% | ▲ 32% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Tusker 0 - 0 - 1 Gor Mahia. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Tusker vs Gor Mahia?
The Kenyan Premier League match finished Tusker 1:0 Gor Mahia. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Tusker vs Gor Mahia?
Tusker score 0.92 goals per game on average and Gor Mahia 1.76. The Kenyan Premier League average is 2.05 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 34% of games. Both teams score in 40% of Tusker's matches and 48% of Gor Mahia's.
What form are Tusker and Gor Mahia in?
Over the last 5 games Tusker have a 3-0-2 record (1.80 points per game) and Gor Mahia 4-1-0 (2.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Tusker vs Gor Mahia?
The statistical background for Tusker vs Gor Mahia — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.