UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Atlético: match statistics

UCV Moquegua are clearly more solid at home, averaging 1.45 goals scored and just 1.09 conceded, while Alianza Atlético score 1.00 and allow 1.75 goals per away game. The hosts have lost only 18% of their home matches, compared with 58% of the visitors’ away fixtures, with Alianza winning just 17% of them. Alianza’s main advantage is their current form, having won 3 of their last 5 matches and scored 9 goals, although UCV have conceded only 3 goals over the same period. The Moquegua side also have a higher shot conversion rate, 14% compared with 8%, while Alianza have kept a clean sheet in only 8% of their away matches. The difference in the quality of chances created is marginal, with the hosts recording an xG of 1.16 and the visitors 1.32, but Alianza’s poor defensive record away from home tips the prediction in favour of the hosts.

The BTTS - Yes pick is primarily supported by Alianza Atlético’s very weak away defense: the team concedes an average of 1.75 goals, keeps a clean sheet in only 8% of matches, while UCV Moquegua scores an average of 1.64 goals at home. The visitors have BTTS in 75% of their matches this season and in as many as 80% of their last five, scoring an average of 1.8 goals during that period. Although UCV has scored only 0.6 goals across its last five matches, with BTTS occurring in 20% of them, their opponents allow an average xG of 1.55, which significantly increases the hosts’ chances of scoring. The home side usually defends solidly, conceding 0.64 goals at home and recording a 45% clean-sheet rate, but their recent average xG against is as high as 1.91, while Alianza’s attacking form points to at least one goal for the visitors.

UCV Moquegua score an average of 1.64 goals at home, but have scored only 3 goals in their last five matches, averaging 0.6 per game. Alianza Atlético concede an average of 1.75 goals away from home, giving the hosts a realistic chance to score, while the visitors themselves average only 1.00 goal per away match. The 3.5 line has gone under in 64% of UCV Moquegua’s matches and 67% of Alianza Atlético’s, while over 4.5 goals has occurred in only 9% and 8% of their games, respectively. The hosts keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches, while their average number of goals conceded at home is just 0.64. The projected total of 2.40 goals points to a scoreline closer to 1:1 or 2:1 than an open, high-scoring game, making Under 3.5 the best option.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a UCV Moquegua win, as the hosts were level at the break in 55% of their matches, compared with 50% for Alianza Atlético. UCV Moquegua have defended very solidly before half-time, conceding an average of just 0.27 goals, while the visitors score only 0.42 goals per match during this phase. After the break, the hosts’ advantage should grow: they score an average of 1.00 goal and concede 0.36, whereas Alianza Atlético concede as many as 1.00 goal per match in the second half. Across the season, the hosts average 2.00 points per match with a 55% win rate, compared with the visitors’ 0.75 points per match and 58% loss rate. Alianza Atlético’s recent form is better, with 3 wins in their last 5 matches, but their poor away defence—keeping a clean sheet in just 8% of matches—still supports a UCV Moquegua turnaround in the second half.