Udinese vs Cremonese: match statistics

I back Udinese to win — the home side holds a clear statistical edge: 45 goals scored this season vs 30 for Cremonese and 10th in the table vs the visitors’ 18th. At home Udinese averages 1.0 goals per game and xG 1.41, while Cremonese on the road records 0.72 goals and xG 0.94, indicating the hosts’ greater ability to generate high-quality chances. Hosts average 13 shots and 4 on target at home vs Cremonese’s 7.94 shots and 2.83 on target; although the visitors’ conversion rate is 9% vs the hosts’ 8%, the lower volume of attempts limits their realistic chances. Defensively Cremonese concedes 1.56 goals away with xG against 1.97, while Udinese concede 1.11 at home with xG against 1.21; additionally Udinese average 2.0 points in the last 5 matches vs 0.8 points for Cremonese. Considering chance creation (13 vs 7.94), higher xG (1.41 vs 0.94), better form (2.0 vs 0.8) and the fact Cremonese fail to score in 56% of away games vs Udinese’s 33% at home, I assess the probabilities as 65% for the hosts, 20% for a draw and 15% for the visitors.

Udinese at home have a seasonal BTTS rate of 50%, while Cremonese have BTTS 33%, and the Serie A average BTTS is 45%. Cremonese have failed to score in 56% of their matches this season, and both teams produced BTTS in only 20% of their last 5 fixtures, which argues against a 'BTTS - Yes' outcome. Udinese have kept a clean sheet in 33% of matches this season, and Cremonese in 22%, so a home clean sheet is more likely. In the last 5 matches Udinese averaged 2.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, while Cremonese averaged 0.8 scored and 1.4 conceded, showing a clear offensive advantage for Udinese (2.0 vs 0.8). xG confirms this gap: Udinese generate 1.21 xG versus Cremonese 0.94 xG, with xG against 1.47 vs 1.97, and the hosts register more shots on target (3.83 vs 2.83). Considering the 56% probability that Cremonese will not score and the low 20% BTTS in the last 5 matches, I recommend 'No Goal' with a probability of 70% versus 30% for 'Goal/Goal'.

Udinese has a seasonal xG_for of 1.21 and an xG_for of 1.63 in the last 5 matches, scoring 10 goals in those 5 games (2.0 per match on average), while Cremonese has a seasonal xG_against of 1.97 and an xG_against of 1.20 in the last 5. Seasonal percentages show Over1.5 in 78% of Udinese matches and in 61% of Cremonese matches, which together provide a strong signal for at least 2 goals in the game — hence a high probability for Over1.5 (85%). The 2.5 line is less convincing: seasonal Over2.5 is 44% for both teams, and the league average is 46% Over2.5; my expected goals of 1.45 for Udinese and 0.95 for Cremonese sum to 2.40, so I rate Over2.5 at 46% vs Under2.5 at 54%. Over3.5 remains unlikely (seasonal Over3.5 22% for both), despite Udinese’s form, so I assess Over3.5 at 25% and Under3.5 at 75%. In summary, the best line to play is Over 1.5 (side: over, line: 1.5) due to Udinese’s 78% seasonal matches above 1.5 and their last 5 matches averaging 2.0 goals per game.

I back 1/1 (Udinese leading at Half-Time and winning Full-Time) because Udinese led at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches (60%) and averaged 0.8 goals by half-time in those five games, while Cremonese conceded an average of 0.6 goals by half-time across their last 5 away matches. Season-to-date the home side have led at the break in 28% of matches (5 times) versus the visitors only 11% (2 times), and at home Udinese have an xG of 1.21 compared to Cremonese’s 0.94, indicating higher quality chances. Udinese average 10.56 shots and 3.83 on target per match versus Cremonese’s 7.94 shots and 2.83 on target, while the visitors concede 1.56 goals per away game with an xG against of 1.97, so Cremonese’s defense looks vulnerable. Although Udinese have just a 17% home win rate this season and many draws (39%), their recent form (3 wins in 5) combined with superiority in xG and shot metrics gives the strongest signal for the hosts to take a lead at the break and maintain it, therefore 1/1 is assigned the highest probability.