Udinese vs Lazio: match statistics

Lazio come into this match in better form, winning 4 of their last 5 fixtures and scoring 8 goals in the process, while Udinese have a record of 3 wins, a draw, and a defeat. The visitors are also unbeaten in their only away match so far: they won 1:0 without conceding, and their average goals conceded away from home stands at 0. Udinese drew their only home fixture to date and, despite averaging 17 shots per match, convert them into goals at a rate of just 6%, scoring once on average. The hosts do, however, create more high-quality chances, as reflected by an xG of 1.59 compared with Lazio’s 1.03, making a draw a realistic outcome. Lazio’s superior current conversion rate of 10%, combined with the visitors’ defensive solidity, nevertheless gives them a slight edge.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as both teams have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their league matches so far, while their current rate of games with goals scored by both sides stands at 0% each. Lazio have conceded an average of just 0.6 goals in their last five appearances and have restricted opponents to 0.94 xG, which limits the prospects of an Udinese goal. However, the hosts are more attacking in terms of underlying data, creating an average of 1.45 xG from 15 shots, while Lazio have recorded 1.03 xG and 10 shots, meaning a single Udinese goal remains a realistic possibility. Five-match form increases the BTTS probability, as Udinese have registered this outcome in 60% of their games and concede an average of 1.0 goal, whereas Lazio have seen BTTS in only 20% of matches. With the league-wide BTTS average at just 35%, the more likely scenario is that at least one side will fail to score.

Recent form points to a match with a moderate number of chances: Udinese score an average of 1.4 goals in their last five matches, while Lazio average 1.6, but both teams concede only 1.0 and 0.6 goals respectively. Lazio have a very stable defense, as confirmed by their average xG conceded of 0.94, while the hosts create an average of 1.50 xG. In the last five matches for each team, only 40% of games went over the 2.5-goal line, while the league average is 2.45 goals. The projected total of 2.37 goals also leaves room for a 1:1 or 2:1 result, but reaching four goals would require a considerably more open game than Lazio’s defensive profile suggests. The strongest option is therefore Under 3.5 goals, supported by a 77% probability.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Lazio win at full-time, as Lazio were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches and never went into half-time trailing. Udinese more often started strongly, leading after 45 minutes in 3 of their last 5 games, but they averaged only 0.2 goals after the break compared with Lazio’s 0.8. The visitors have won 4 of their last 5 matches and scored an average of 1.6 goals per game, while the hosts won 60% of that sample and scored 1.4 goals per match. Lazio’s second-half advantage is clear: they averaged 1.2 goals after the break compared with Udinese’s 0.6, with a points average of 2.0 versus 1.0. Udinese’s potential to take the lead is limited by their opponents’ xG against them of 0.82, but Lazio should eventually make the most of their greater efficiency and stronger form in the closing stages.