Újpest vs Várda SE: match statistics
The match promises to be very tightly contested, which favors a draw or a slight advantage for one of the sides. Újpest presents a weak home form with only a 31% win rate at home and a -4 goal difference, and their last five home matches have brought them only one victory. Várda SE shows better disposition in recent fixtures (2.0 PPG in the last 5 matches compared to 1.4 for the hosts), however, they also struggle on the road, conceding an average of 1.67 goals. Both teams have similar xG and efficiency metrics, which further confirms the even nature of the clash. Considering the statistics of both teams and their tendency to draw (23% for Újpest and 25% for Várda on their respective pitches), I predict a draw as the most probable outcome, with a slight edge for the visitors due to their better current form.
Újpest vs Várda SE: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Újpest played Várda SE in NB I (Hungary). The match was played on 14 March 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Újpest: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Várda SE: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Újpest scores 1.32 and concedes 1.64 goals per match. Várda SE scores 1.24 and concedes 1.48. League average: 2.99 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Újpest 64%, Várda SE 44%. Over 2.5: Újpest 64%, Várda SE 48%. League level: BTTS 61%, Over 2.5 60%.
xG, shots and style
Újpest has higher xG: 1.53 vs 1.29. Újpest: 12.6 shots per match, Várda SE: 10.9.
Match halves
Újpest: half-time lead 28%, second-half goals 0.68. Várda SE: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 0.64.
Goals by minute
Újpest: 16-30 (8 goals). Várda SE: 16-30 (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
NB I: 2.99 goals per match, BTTS 61%, Over 2.5 60%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-2. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
The match promises to be very tightly contested, which favors a draw or a slight advantage for one of the sides. Újpest presents a weak home form with only a 31% win rate at home and a -4 goal difference, and their last five home matches have brought them only one victory. Várda SE shows better disposition in recent fixtures (2.0 PPG in the last 5 matches compared to 1.4 for the hosts), however, they also struggle on the road, conceding an average of 1.67 goals. Both teams have similar xG and efficiency metrics, which further confirms the even nature of the clash. Considering the statistics of both teams and their tendency to draw (23% for Újpest and 25% for Várda on their respective pitches), I predict a draw as the most probable outcome, with a slight edge for the visitors due to their better current form.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Újpest | Várda SE | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Várda SE is 43% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Újpest · 2 pts / match - Várda SE
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Újpest is 6% better for: goals scored per match.
1.32 goals / match - Újpest · 1.24 goals / match - Várda SE
Várda SE is 11% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.64 goals / match - Újpest · 1.48 goals / match - Várda SE
Újpest scores in 64% of matches (16 of 25 matches), while Várda SE keeps a clean sheet in 32% (8 of 25 matches).
Várda SE scores in 72% of matches (18 of 25 matches), while Újpest keeps a clean sheet in 8% (2 of 25 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Újpest
Over / Under - Várda SE
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Újpest is 17% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.36 pts / match - Újpest · 1.16 pts / match - Várda SE
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Újpest - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 28% of matches and wins 32%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Várda SE - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 44%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (8 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (7 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Újpest
Várda SE
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (NB I).
Teams vs league
| Újpest | Liga | Várda SE | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.96 | 2.99 | ▼ 2.72 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 64% | 61% | ▼ 44% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 64% | 60% | ▼ 48% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 8% | 21% | ▲ 32% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 64% | 68% | • 68% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 76% | 88% | ▼ 76% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Újpest 0 - 0 - 2 Várda SE. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Újpest vs Várda SE?
The NB I match finished Újpest 2:1 Várda SE. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Újpest and Várda SE?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Újpest won 0, Várda SE won 2 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Újpest vs Várda SE?
Újpest score 1.32 goals per game on average and Várda SE 1.24. The NB I average is 2.99 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 60% of games. Both teams score in 64% of Újpest's matches and 44% of Várda SE's.
What form are Újpest and Várda SE in?
Over the last 5 games Újpest have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Várda SE 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Újpest vs Várda SE?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Újpest vs Várda SE: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.