Újpest vs Vasas: match statistics

Újpest are highly effective at home: they score an average of 2.5 goals per match, register 5.5 shots on target, and have yet to record a game without scoring. Vasas do occupy a higher position in the table and have a better record over their last five matches, collecting 8 points compared with Újpest’s 7, but away from home they average just one goal per match and fail to score in 50% of games. The hosts also create higher-quality chances, posting an xG of 1.56 compared with Vasas’s 1.16, although their defence remains vulnerable, allowing opponents an xG of 1.85 and conceding an average of 1.5 goals. The visitors are considerably more solid defensively, conceding an average of just 0.5 goals away from home and keeping clean sheets in 50% of matches, making a draw a realistic scenario. However, Újpest’s attacking advantage at home should narrowly outweigh Vasas’s defensive solidity.

The signal for both teams to score is strengthened by Újpest’s current form: BTTS occurred in 80% of their last 5 matches, with the team averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. Over the same period, Vasas averaged 1.8 goals scored, with an xG of 1.44, while the home defence allowed opponents 1.48 xG and conceded 1.8 goals per match. Újpest have clear attacking potential at home, averaging 2.33 goals scored, 6.33 shots on target and an xG of 1.63, so they should find a way through the Vasas defence. However, the pick is not without risk, as Vasas kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches this season and their full-season BTTS rate is only 50%. Despite this, the current goal-scoring figures and xG of both teams slightly favour the outcome in which each side scores at least once.

Újpest average 2.33 goals per match and 6.33 shots on target, while Vasas have conceded just 0.50 goals so far, which limits the outlook for a very high-scoring game. At the same time, chance-quality models indicate approximately 1.63 xG for the home side and 1.16 xG for the visitors, with a total projection of 2.60 goals clearly supporting Over 2.0 goals. In their last five matches, both teams recorded games with at least three goals in 60% of cases, while the league average stands at a high 3.25 goals. Over 1.5 is the strongest pick, as it offers a substantial safety margin against the uncertainty created by Vasas' solid defence while also being supported by the attacking form of both teams.

Újpest have a clear edge in terms of their potential to take an early lead: in their last five matches, they were ahead at the break in 60% of games, compared with just 20% for Vasas. The hosts average 6.33 shots on target per match, versus 3.5 for their opponents, while their average xG stands at 1.63 compared with Vasas’s 1.16. In their home matches to date, Újpest have not conceded before half-time, whereas Vasas have averaged 0.0 goals in the first half and failed to score in 100% of such games. After the interval, the hosts score an average of 1.67 goals, supporting their ability to maintain the lead, although Vasas’s solid defence, conceding an average of just 0.5 goals per match, reduces confidence in a high-scoring outcome. The most likely scenario, therefore, remains an Újpest lead at half-time followed by a win at the final whistle.