Ulm vs MSV Duisburg: match statistics
As the league leaders, MSV Duisburg are showing significantly better form and efficiency than 19th-placed Ulm. The hosts have only a 30% win rate at home with a 70% loss rate, conceding an average of 2.1 goals per home match. MSV Duisburg maintain a solid defense in away matches with 55% clean sheets and an average of just 1.18 goals conceded, alongside a 36% away win rate. The form over the last five matches also favors the visitors (1.6 points per game vs 1.2 for Ulm). The difference in goal balance (+6 for MSV away vs -7 for Ulm at home) and the visitors' higher shot conversion rate (15% vs 13%) further support the advantage of the team from Duisburg. Considering all statistics, MSV Duisburg have a realistic chance of winning, although their solid draw form away (36% draws on the road) does not rule out a share of the points.
Ulm vs MSV Duisburg: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Ulm played MSV Duisburg in 3. Liga (Germany). The match was played on 1 February 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Ulm: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. MSV Duisburg: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Ulm scores 1.38 and concedes 2.14 goals per match. MSV Duisburg scores 1.81 and concedes 1.05. League average: 3.14 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Ulm 67%, MSV Duisburg 62%. Over 2.5: Ulm 76%, MSV Duisburg 67%. League level: BTTS 63%, Over 2.5 64%.
xG, shots and style
MSV Duisburg has higher xG: 1.57 vs 1.36. Ulm: 11.2 shots per match, MSV Duisburg: 12.6.
Match halves
Ulm: half-time lead 14%, second-half goals 0.86. MSV Duisburg: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 1.14.
Goals by minute
Ulm: 46-60 (8 goals). MSV Duisburg: 76-90+ (11 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
3. Liga: 3.14 goals per match, BTTS 63%, Over 2.5 64%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
As the league leaders, MSV Duisburg are showing significantly better form and efficiency than 19th-placed Ulm. The hosts have only a 30% win rate at home with a 70% loss rate, conceding an average of 2.1 goals per home match. MSV Duisburg maintain a solid defense in away matches with 55% clean sheets and an average of just 1.18 goals conceded, alongside a 36% away win rate. The form over the last five matches also favors the visitors (1.6 points per game vs 1.2 for Ulm). The difference in goal balance (+6 for MSV away vs -7 for Ulm at home) and the visitors' higher shot conversion rate (15% vs 13%) further support the advantage of the team from Duisburg. Considering all statistics, MSV Duisburg have a realistic chance of winning, although their solid draw form away (36% draws on the road) does not rule out a share of the points.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Ulm | MSV Duisburg | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 40% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
MSV Duisburg is 33% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Ulm · 1.6 pts / match - MSV Duisburg
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
MSV Duisburg is 31% better for: goals scored per match.
1.38 goals / match - Ulm · 1.81 goals / match - MSV Duisburg
MSV Duisburg is 104% better for: goals conceded per match.
2.14 goals / match - Ulm · 1.05 goals / match - MSV Duisburg
Ulm scores in 81% of matches (17 of 21 matches), while MSV Duisburg keeps a clean sheet in 38% (8 of 21 matches).
MSV Duisburg scores in 81% of matches (17 of 21 matches), while Ulm keeps a clean sheet in 14% (3 of 21 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Ulm
Over / Under - MSV Duisburg
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
MSV Duisburg is 100% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.76 pts / match - Ulm · 1.52 pts / match - MSV Duisburg
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Ulm - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 14% of matches and wins 29%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
MSV Duisburg - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 52%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.4 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +5 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (8 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (11 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Ulm
MSV Duisburg
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (3. Liga).
Teams vs league
| Ulm | Liga | MSV Duisburg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.52 | 3.14 | ▼ 2.86 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 67% | 63% | • 62% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 76% | 64% | ▲ 67% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 14% | 22% | ▲ 38% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 81% | 76% | ▼ 62% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 81% | 83% | ▼ 76% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Ulm 0 - 0 - 1 MSV Duisburg. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Ulm vs MSV Duisburg?
The 3. Liga match finished Ulm 1:0 MSV Duisburg. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Ulm vs MSV Duisburg?
Ulm score 1.38 goals per game on average and MSV Duisburg 1.81. The 3. Liga average is 3.14 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 64% of games. Both teams score in 67% of Ulm's matches and 62% of MSV Duisburg's.
What form are Ulm and MSV Duisburg in?
Over the last 5 games Ulm have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and MSV Duisburg 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Ulm vs MSV Duisburg?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Ulm vs MSV Duisburg: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.