Ulm vs Verl: match statistics
Ulm vs Verl: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Ulm played Verl in 3. Liga (Germany). The match was played on 5 April 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Ulm: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match. Verl: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Ulm scores 1.30 and concedes 2.07 goals per match. Verl scores 2.33 and concedes 1.37. League average: 3.15 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Ulm 73%, Verl 73%. Over 2.5: Ulm 70%, Verl 80%. League level: BTTS 64%, Over 2.5 64%.
xG, shots and style
Verl has higher xG: 1.82 vs 1.42. Ulm: 11.8 shots per match, Verl: 15.2.
Match halves
Ulm: half-time lead 17%, second-half goals 0.80. Verl: half-time lead 43%, second-half goals 1.33.
Goals by minute
Ulm: 46-60 (10 goals). Verl: 76-90+ (17 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
3. Liga: 3.15 goals per match, BTTS 64%, Over 2.5 64%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 5.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Verl is the paper favorite: the visitors average 2.00 goals per away match (70 this season) versus Ulm’s 1.27 at home (39 this season), and in the last 5 games Verl has scored 10 and conceded only 3 while Ulm has 7 scored and 10 conceded. The quality gap is also evident in possession and shots: Verl averages 65% possession and 5.4 shots on target per away game, Ulm 52% possession and 4.13 shots on target at home. Defensively Ulm concedes 2.07 goals per home match, Verl 1.67 away, and xG also favors the visitors (xG 1.71 for Verl vs 1.43 for Ulm). Efficiency further supports the visitors: Verl’s conversion rate is 14% versus Ulm’s 11%, and Ulm fail to score in 20% of home games compared to Verl’s 13% scoreless away matches. Ulm have only a 27% home-win rate and a -12 home goal differential, while Verl have a 40% away-win rate and a +5 differential, so I predict an away win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams show high seasonal BTTS rates: Ulm 67% and Verl 80%, while the league average is 64%, indicating a bias towards BTTS - Yes. Ulm at home scores 2.67 goals on average (xG 1.92) and records 6.33 shots on target, while Verl away averages 2.0 goals (xG 1.71) with 5.4 shots on target — both sides generate clear chances. In the last 5 matches Ulm has BTTS 100% and concedes 2.0 goals per game on average (10 conceded), whereas Verl has BTTS 40% but scores 2.0 and concedes only 0.6 (3 conceded) — this lowers confidence but does not negate the seasonal trends. Ulm has 33% clean sheets and Verl 13%, and matches over 2.5 goals occur in 87% of Ulm’s games and 73% of Verl’s, which further favors Goal/Goal outcomes. Considering the offensive edge (xG 1.92 vs 1.71), seasonal BTTS 67%/80% and Ulm’s recent 100% BTTS, I assess BTTS probability at 72% and select 'BTTS - Yes'.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG-based model (xG for Ulm 1.92 and xG against Verl 1.26; xG for Verl 1.71 and xG against Ulm 1.19) yields expected goals: Ulm 1.59 and Verl 1.45, total 3.04. Seasonally, Over 1.5 occurred in 93% of matches for both teams, Over 2.5 in 87% of Ulm’s matches and 73% of Verl’s matches (average 80%), and Over 3.5 in 60% vs 53% (average ~57%), confirming a propensity for high-scoring games. Additionally, BTTS is 67% for Ulm and 80% for Verl, and in the last 5 matches both teams produced Over 2.5 in 80% of cases (Ulm scored 7 and conceded 10 in those 5; Verl scored 10 and conceded 3), which increases the likelihood of multiple goals. Considering the expected 3.04 goals, the high seasonal 80% for Over 2.5 and frequent mutual scoring, the strongest signal from the data is Over 2.5. There is risk since Ulm concedes on average 1.07 at home and has weaker form in the last five matches, but the numbers (xG, high Over and BTTS rates) clearly support betting Over 2.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I back 1/1 (Ulm leading at half and winning) because Ulm led at the break in 8 home matches (53% of their home games), averaging 1.07 goals at half and conceding only 0.33. Verl led at half in 5 away matches (33%), averaging 0.93 first-half goals and 0.80 conceded, while Ulm posts higher home xG: 1.92 versus Verl’s 1.71. Ulm wins 60% of home fixtures and accumulates 2.07 points per home match, keeps a clean sheet at half in 80% of home games, and registers more shots (16.27 vs 14.13) and more on target (6.33 vs 5.4), all factors that support converting a lead at the break into a full-time victory. There is a risk of a turnaround given Verl’s recent form (60% wins in the last 5 matches versus Ulm’s 20%) and their activity in the 0–15 minute window (8 goals vs Ulm’s 6), so I have assigned moderate probabilities to draw and turnaround scenarios. Therefore I gave the highest probability to 1/1 (37%), with 11% for 1/X and 13% for X/1 as the main alternatives.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Ulm | Verl | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 39% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Verl is 400% better for: last-5 form.
0.4 pts / match - Ulm · 2 pts / match - Verl
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Verl is 79% better for: goals scored per match.
1.3 goals / match - Ulm · 2.33 goals / match - Verl
Verl is 51% better for: goals conceded per match.
2.07 goals / match - Ulm · 1.37 goals / match - Verl
Ulm scores in 87% of matches (26 of 30 matches), while Verl keeps a clean sheet in 23% (7 of 30 matches).
Verl scores in 90% of matches (27 of 30 matches), while Ulm keeps a clean sheet in 13% (4 of 30 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Ulm
Over / Under - Verl
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Verl is 92% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.87 pts / match - Ulm · 1.67 pts / match - Verl
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Ulm - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 17% of matches and wins 23%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Verl - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 43% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -5 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (10 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (14). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (17 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Ulm
Verl
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (3. Liga).
Teams vs league
| Ulm | Liga | Verl | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.37 | 3.15 | ▲ 3.70 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 73% | 64% | ▲ 73% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 70% | 64% | ▲ 80% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 13% | 21% | ▲ 23% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 80% | 76% | • 77% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 80% | 83% | ▲ 90% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Ulm 0 - 0 - 1 Verl. Average goals 5.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Ulm vs Verl?
The 3. Liga match finished Ulm 1:0 Verl. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Ulm vs Verl?
Ulm score 1.30 goals per game on average and Verl 2.33. The 3. Liga average is 3.15 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 64% of games. Both teams score in 73% of Ulm's matches and 73% of Verl's.
What form are Ulm and Verl in?
Over the last 5 games Ulm have a 0-2-3 record (0.40 points per game) and Verl 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Ulm vs Verl?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.