Ulsan vs Gwangju: match statistics
Ulsan vs Gwangju: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Ulsan played Gwangju in K League 1 (South Korea). The match was played on 19 April 2026. Final score: 5:1.
Current form
Ulsan: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Gwangju: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Ulsan scores 1.43 and concedes 1.29 goals per match. Gwangju scores 0.57 and concedes 1.71. League average: 2.15 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Ulsan 57%, Gwangju 29%. Over 2.5: Ulsan 57%, Gwangju 43%. League level: BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 33%.
xG, shots and style
Ulsan has higher xG: 1.91 vs 1.07. Ulsan: 16.0 shots per match, Gwangju: 8.7.
Match halves
Ulsan: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 0.86. Gwangju: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 0.43.
Goals by minute
Ulsan: 61-75 (3 goals). Gwangju: 61-75 (2 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
K League 1: 2.15 goals per match, BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 33%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 4 previous H2H matches were available: 2-1-1. Average goals 2.25, BTTS 25%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict a home win for Ulsan: they sit 2nd in the table versus Gwangju’s 12th, indicating a clear class advantage. Ulsan’s attack at home averages 18.67 shots and 6.33 shots on target per match, has an average xG of 2.17 and scores 1.33 goals per game, while Gwangju away averages 9 shots with 2.25 on target, has xG 1.02 and only 0.25 goals per match. The visitors have a serious finishing problem — shot conversion 3%, 0 away wins and no goal in 75% of away games, whereas Ulsan fail to score in only 33% of home matches. Defensively Ulsan concedes 1.67 goals at home on average, and Gwangju concedes 2.25 away; in the last 5 matches the hosts scored 5 and conceded 7, while the visitors scored only 1 and conceded 10, confirming Gwangju’s greater issues. Considering the higher xG (2.17 vs 1.02), significantly more clear-cut chances and better recent form over the last 5 (Ulsan 1.4 points per match vs Gwangju 0.4), I give Ulsan a 70% chance, draw 18% and the away team 12%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams have low BTTS rates: Ulsan 33% this season (40% in last 5), Gwangju 25% this season (20% in last 5), yielding an average ~30% chance of BTTS. Gwangju scores only 0.25 goals per game this season (0.2 in last 5) despite xG_for 1.02 and a very low shot conversion of 3%, so their realistic scoring potential is limited. Ulsan averages 1.0 goals per game season-wide (1.0 in last 5) with xG_for 1.14, but also concedes on average 1.0 goals this season (1.4 in last 5) with xG_against 1.78 — therefore Ulsan can concede, but opponents rarely convert. Additionally, league average BTTS is 55% with 56% clean sheets, and both teams are below the league BTTS average, so I assign ~30% to BTTS - Yes and 70% to No; the best tip is No.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The teams' xG and defensive stats provide mixed but goal-leaning signals: Ulsan's xG is 1.14 versus Gwangju's xG against of 1.64 (≈1.39 xG for Ulsan), while Gwangju's xG is 1.02 versus Ulsan's xG against of 1.78 (≈1.40 xG for Gwangju), totaling ≈2.79 xG. However, season-long actual goals are lower: Ulsan scores 1.0 goal per match, Gwangju only 0.25 (total 1.25), and in the last 5 matches these figures are 1.0 and 0.2 (total 1.2). The key factor is Gwangju's low finishing — shot conversion rate 3% versus Ulsan's 12% — and the fact Gwangju concedes on average 2.25 goals per game; these reduce Gwangju's practical realization of xG. After adjusting xG for real finishing, I revise expected goals to ≈1.45 for Ulsan and ≈0.65 for Gwangju (sum ≈2.10). A Poisson model with a total of 2.10 yields about a 62% probability of Over 1.5 goals, ~35% for Over 2.5 and ~16% for Over 3.5, so the strongest signal from the data is the Over line at 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Ulsan holds a clear offensive advantage: they average 1.0 goals per game versus Gwangju’s 0.25, have an xG of 1.14 compared to 1.02, and a markedly better shot conversion rate (12% vs 3%), which increases the hosts’ chances of converting opportunities. Gwangju concedes an average of 2.25 goals per game and have not recorded a win in their last five matches (0% wins in the last 5), with a 0.0% season away win rate, so their potential for an overall victory is limited. At Half-Time the statistics favor a draw: Ulsan were level at the break in 100% of home matches (drawingAtHTPercentage_home = 100.0), and in the last five games both teams were tied at Half-Time in 40–60% of cases (home 40.0%, away 60.0%). At the same time Ulsan perform stronger after the break — their average second-half goals is 0.67 and 67% of their matches have at least one second-half goal (scored_2hg_avg_home = 0.67, over05_2hg_percentage_home = 67.0), while Gwangju on average concedes more after the break (conceded_2hg_avg_away = 1.5), which favors a turnaround and a home victory. In light of these numbers the most likely scenario is a draw at Half-Time and an Ulsan win at Full-Time (X/1) — I assign it a 35% chance; followed by 1/1 at 24% and X/X at 15%, with the overall probability of a Gwangju win assessed low (around 12%).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Ulsan | Gwangju | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 31% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Ulsan is 250% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Ulsan · 0.4 pts / match - Gwangju
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Ulsan is 151% better for: goals scored per match.
1.43 goals / match - Ulsan · 0.57 goals / match - Gwangju
Ulsan is 33% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.29 goals / match - Ulsan · 1.71 goals / match - Gwangju
Ulsan scores in 71% of matches (5 of 7 matches), while Gwangju keeps a clean sheet in 29% (2 of 7 matches).
Gwangju scores in 29% of matches (2 of 7 matches), while Ulsan keeps a clean sheet in 29% (2 of 7 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Ulsan
Over / Under - Gwangju
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Ulsan is 82% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.29 pts / match - Ulsan · 0.71 pts / match - Gwangju
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Ulsan - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 57%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Gwangju - second-half results
Concedes 0.6 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -3 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 100% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -6 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (3 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (2 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Ulsan
Gwangju
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (K League 1).
Teams vs league
| Ulsan | Liga | Gwangju | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.71 | 2.15 | ▲ 2.29 |
| Both teams scored | • 57% | 57% | ▼ 29% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 57% | 33% | ▲ 43% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 29% | 27% | ▲ 29% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 71% | 61% | ▼ 43% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 86% | 74% | ▼ 71% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (4): Ulsan 2 - 1 - 1 Gwangju. Average goals 2.25, both teams scored in 25% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Ulsan vs Gwangju?
The K League 1 match finished Ulsan 5:1 Gwangju. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan and Gwangju?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches Ulsan won 2, Gwangju won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.25 goals, with both teams scoring in 25% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Ulsan vs Gwangju?
Ulsan score 1.43 goals per game on average and Gwangju 0.57. The K League 1 average is 2.15 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 33% of games. Both teams score in 57% of Ulsan's matches and 29% of Gwangju's.
What form are Ulsan and Gwangju in?
Over the last 5 games Ulsan have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Gwangju 0-2-3 (0.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Ulsan vs Gwangju?
The statistical background for Ulsan vs Gwangju — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.