Ulsan vs Pohang Steelers: match statistics

Ulsan is the favorite in this matchup — they sit 2nd in the table versus Pohang’s 9th and exhibit clearly superior offensive output: 17 home goals this season and an average of 2.0 goals per home match compared to the visitors’ 7 goals this season and 1.5 goals per away match. The hosts create more high-quality chances: average home xG is 2.10 accompanied by 18.6 shots per match with 6 on target, while Pohang’s away xG is 1.33 with 11.5 shots and 3 on target. Both teams are, however, vulnerable defensively — Ulsan concedes on average 2.0 goals at home (xG against 1.53), and Pohang concedes 2.0 away (xG against 1.42), and Ulsan’s matches average 4.0 total goals, indicating a high goal potential. In the last 5 matches Ulsan scored 10 goals and have 1.4 points per match, while Pohang scored 4 goals and have 1.2 points per match, which confirms the hosts’ offensive edge. Based on this I assess an Ulsan win as most likely (60%), draw 20% and Pohang win 20%, with a simultaneously high probability of goals from both sides given the low clean sheet rates (20% vs 0%).

Seasonal data show a contrast: Ulsan at home scores on average 0.5 goals and has only 13% of matches with BTTS, while Pohang away has a season BTTS of 100% and concedes on average 2.0 goals away. xG and shot statistics suggest both teams create chances — Ulsan xG 1.45 vs Pohang xG 1.33, combined xG 2.78, and shots on target 3.38 vs 3.0. The difference in finishing is significant: Ulsan converts only 4% of shots to goals, Pohang 13%, so with similar xG Pohang is likely to be more efficient in front of goal. On the other hand Ulsan has 50% clean sheets at home this season, but in the last 5 matches Ulsan had BTTS 100% and scored/conceded 10/11, while Pohang in the last 5 has BTTS 20% and scored/conceded 4/6. Considering the strong away BTTS signal from Pohang (100%), the high combined xG 2.78 and Ulsan's low conversion (4%), but also the risk of a clean sheet from Ulsan (50%), I assign a 60% probability to BTTS - Yes and 40% to No, therefore I recommend the bet: 'Yes'.

Based on xG and defensive data, expected goals are 1.44 for Ulsan (attack xG 1.45 vs Pohang conceded xG 1.42) and 1.21 for Pohang (attack xG 1.33 vs Ulsan conceded xG 1.08), totaling 2.65 goals. With that total the Poisson model yields approximately a 74% probability for Over 1.5, ~49% for Over 2.5 and ~28% for Over 3.5. Additionally, Pohang has a season-long Over 1.5 rate of 100% and Ulsan over the last 5 matches averages 2.17 xG and scored 10 goals in 5 games, which supports a scoring scenario. Ulsan does, however, have 50% clean sheets this season and season shot averages of 11.88 vs 11.5 for Pohang, so ultimately the strongest and most reliable signal from the data is Over 1.5.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win by full-time (X/1). Ulsan averages 1.38 points per match this season versus 0.5 points for Pohang and has 9 points won by half-time compared to 0 for the visitors, which suggests a home advantage over the full match. At the break the hosts drew in 38% of matches, while Ulsan led at the break in only 25%; the visitors were leading at the break in 0% of games, which increases the likelihood of a draw HT. In the second half Ulsan performs better in the last 5 matches: on average 2.0 goals after the break and 1.8 points gained after the break versus 0.6 goals and 0.8 points for Pohang, so the home side more often executes a turnaround after half-time. Additionally Ulsan’s xG is 1.45 versus 1.33 for the visitors, and Pohang concedes on average 2.0 goals away and has yet to win away (0% wins), which reinforces the draw HT and Ulsan FT scenario.