Umm Salal vs Al Gharafa: match statistics
As the league leader, Al Gharafa presents significantly higher quality than Umm Salal, who occupy 10th place in the table. The hosts have an alarming home record with 60% of matches lost and an average of 3.2 goals conceded per game at home, which, combined with a goal difference of -8, reveals serious defensive liabilities. Despite average away form (40% wins), Al Gharafa possesses a much better defense, conceding an average of only 1.6 goals on the road. A key factor is also the visitors' advantage in possession (49% vs 39%) and better xG metrics, which indicate greater efficiency in creating chances. Although the hosts have recently won two of their last five matches, their streak in home games (wwlll) shows instability, while Al Gharafa, as the leader, should capitalize on the rival's defensive weaknesses.
Umm Salal vs Al Gharafa: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Umm Salal played Al Gharafa in Stars League (Qatar). The match was played on 6 January 2026. Final score: 2:3.
Current form
Umm Salal: 1-0-4, 0.60 points/match. Al Gharafa: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Umm Salal scores 1.82 and concedes 2.91 goals per match. Al Gharafa scores 1.82 and concedes 1.18. League average: 3.32 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Umm Salal 73%, Al Gharafa 55%. Over 2.5: Umm Salal 91%, Al Gharafa 64%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 61%.
xG, shots and style
Al Gharafa has higher xG: 1.57 vs 1.36. Umm Salal: 11.6 shots per match, Al Gharafa: 13.6.
Match halves
Umm Salal: half-time lead 45%, second-half goals 0.91. Al Gharafa: half-time lead 18%, second-half goals 1.36.
Goals by minute
Umm Salal: 31-45+ (7 goals). Al Gharafa: 76-90+ (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Stars League: 3.32 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 61%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 6.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
As the league leader, Al Gharafa presents significantly higher quality than Umm Salal, who occupy 10th place in the table. The hosts have an alarming home record with 60% of matches lost and an average of 3.2 goals conceded per game at home, which, combined with a goal difference of -8, reveals serious defensive liabilities. Despite average away form (40% wins), Al Gharafa possesses a much better defense, conceding an average of only 1.6 goals on the road. A key factor is also the visitors' advantage in possession (49% vs 39%) and better xG metrics, which indicate greater efficiency in creating chances. Although the hosts have recently won two of their last five matches, their streak in home games (wwlll) shows instability, while Al Gharafa, as the leader, should capitalize on the rival's defensive weaknesses.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Umm Salal | Al Gharafa | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 41% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Al Gharafa is 300% better for: last-5 form.
0.6 pts / match - Umm Salal · 2.4 pts / match - Al Gharafa
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Al Gharafa is 147% better for: goals conceded per match.
2.91 goals / match - Umm Salal · 1.18 goals / match - Al Gharafa
Umm Salal scores in 91% of matches (10 of 11 matches), while Al Gharafa keeps a clean sheet in 27% (3 of 11 matches).
Al Gharafa scores in 73% of matches (8 of 11 matches), while Umm Salal keeps a clean sheet in 18% (2 of 11 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Umm Salal
Over / Under - Al Gharafa
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Umm Salal is 73% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.73 pts / match - Umm Salal · 1 pts / match - Al Gharafa
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Umm Salal - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 45% of matches and wins 27%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 1.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Al Gharafa - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 18% of matches and wins 73%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| Average goals in match | 2.2 | 2.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -6 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +5 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -7 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +6 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Umm Salal
Al Gharafa
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Stars League).
Teams vs league
| Umm Salal | Liga | Al Gharafa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 4.73 | 3.32 | ▼ 3.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 73% | 55% | • 55% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 91% | 61% | ▲ 64% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 18% | 25% | ▲ 27% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 82% | 73% | • 73% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 100% | 86% | ▼ 82% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Umm Salal 0 - 0 - 1 Al Gharafa. Average goals 6.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Umm Salal vs Al Gharafa?
The Stars League match finished Umm Salal 2:3 Al Gharafa. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Umm Salal vs Al Gharafa?
Umm Salal score 1.82 goals per game on average and Al Gharafa 1.82. The Stars League average is 3.32 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 61% of games. Both teams score in 73% of Umm Salal's matches and 55% of Al Gharafa's.
What form are Umm Salal and Al Gharafa in?
Over the last 5 games Umm Salal have a 1-0-4 record (0.60 points per game) and Al Gharafa 4-0-1 (2.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Umm Salal vs Al Gharafa?
The statistical background for Umm Salal vs Al Gharafa — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.