Ümraniyespor vs Mardin BB: match statistics

Mardin BB remain unbeaten in their last five matches, recording 2 wins and 3 draws, while Ümraniyespor have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2. The visitors have been considerably more solid defensively, conceding just 2 goals during this period—an average of 0.4 per match—compared with Ümraniyespor’s 9, or 1.8 per game. However, the hosts have scored 9 goals in their last five appearances, more than twice Mardin BB’s 4, which could offset their opponents’ defensive advantage. Mardin BB have averaged 1.8 points per match in this run, compared with 1.4 for Ümraniyespor, but the visitors’ three draws suggest a cautious, closely contested encounter. With Mardin BB’s greater defensive solidity and Ümraniyespor’s superior attacking efficiency, a draw appears to be the most likely outcome.

The stronger signal for BTTS - No comes from Mardin BB’s defensive record: in their last 5 matches, the team conceded only 2 goals, averaging 0.4 per game, with xG against at 0.99. The visitors themselves scored just 0.8 goals per match, and BTTS occurred in only 40% of their five most recent fixtures, creating a clear risk that one side will fail to score. Ümraniyespor does have a considerably more open profile, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, with BTTS landing in 80% of their recent matches. However, their attack, valued at 1.50 xG, will face a highly effective opposition defence, while Mardin BB’s weaker attacking output further limits the chances of goals at both ends. Therefore, the more likely scenario is that at least one team will fail to score.

The available data is based primarily on the last five matches, in which Ümraniyespor scored an average of 1.8 goals but also conceded 1.8. In the team’s matches, the 2.5-goal line was surpassed in 80% of cases, while both teams scored in 80%, indicating an open profile for the hosts. Mardin BB scored only 0.8 goals per match, but its average xG stood at 1.08, while Ümraniyespor’s defense allowed opponents 1.57 xG. The visitors conceded just 2 goals in five appearances, so Over 2.5 does not have equally strong support despite a projected total of 2.25 goals. The strongest signal is Over 1.5: the hosts’ attacking inconsistency and the visitors’ potential should be enough to produce at least two goals.

The strongest signal points to a draw at half-time: both teams were level after 45 minutes in 3 of their last 5 matches, equating to 60% of cases. Mardin BB have not conceded a single goal before the break in this run, while their matches have averaged 0.6 goals in the first half, supporting a cautious start. The visitors remain unbeaten in their last five outings, recording 3 draws and 2 wins, and their matches have produced an average of just 1.2 goals. Ümraniyespor do average 1.8 goals per match, but they concede the same amount, while both teams have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their matches after half-time. Therefore, the most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw maintained until full-time: X/X.