Unia Swarzędz vs Kotwica Kórnik: match statistics

Kotwica Kórnik are slight favourites thanks to their more potent attack: they have scored 14 goals and recorded 3 wins in their last five matches, while Unia Swarzędz have scored 7 and won just once. Away from home, the visitors average 1.25 goals per match, compared with just 0.5 for the hosts on home turf. Despite Unia taking more shots, their conversion rate is 3%, against Kotwica’s 11%. However, the visitors’ defence limits their chances, conceding an average of 2.75 goals away from home, compared with Unia’s 2 goals conceded per home match. The hosts also create chances worth an average xG of 1.84, higher than Kotwica’s away xG of 1.66, giving them an opportunity to exploit the visitors’ defensive frailties. Neither side has kept a clean sheet in their respective home and away matches, but Kotwica’s recent scoring form tips the prediction in their favour.

The strongest signal points to both teams scoring: BTTS occurred in 60% of Unia’s and 100% of Kotwica’s last 5 matches. Both defences are vulnerable, with the home side conceding an average of 2.0 goals and the visitors 2.6 over this period; neither team kept a clean sheet in the matches covered by the season statistics. Unia score an average of 2.17 goals at home, while Kotwica, despite a season average of 1.25 goals away, have recently scored an average of 2.8 goals per match. The xG figures of 1.57 for the home side and 1.66 for the visitors also indicate that both teams can create chances. The risk to the “Yes” pick is that Kotwica failed to score in 50% of their away matches, but their recent scoring form and Unia’s poor defence tip the assessment in favour of BTTS - Yes.

Unia average 2.17 goals scored per match, while Kotwica concede 2.75, giving the hosts a solid platform to score several goals. The visitors average 1.25 goals, while Unia concede 2.33, so Kotwica getting on the scoresheet is also a realistic prospect. At least 2 goals were scored in matches involving the two teams in 83% and 75% of cases, respectively, and neither side has kept a clean sheet yet. In addition, Kotwica’s last 5 matches have averaged 5.4 goals, although their attack has not been as consistent over the course of the season. Therefore, Over 1.5 goals is the strongest pick: it is better supported by both teams’ results than higher lines, despite the projected total being 3.65 goals.

Unia led at the break in 3 of the 6 matches analysed, while Kotwica had not led at half-time in any of their 4 matches, pointing to a first-half advantage for the home side. Unia score an average of 1.17 goals before the break and concede 0.67, compared with Kotwica’s 0.75 scored and 1.25 conceded. Unia’s average of 2.17 goals scored per match, alongside Kotwica conceding 2.75, supports the case for the hosts to hold on to their lead. However, the risk of a turnaround is significant: the visitors have won 3 of their last 5 matches, while the home side concede an average of 1.67 goals after the break. Even so, the most likely single HT/FT scenario remains Unia leading at the break and winning at full time (1/1).