Unia Swarzędz vs Noteć Czarnków: match statistics

Unia Swarzędz have the better record over their last five matches: they won 3 games and scored 13 goals, while Noteć Czarnków recorded 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 10 goals. In the current campaign, the hosts have a record of 1 win and 1 defeat after two matches, with a 3:3 goal difference, whereas the visitors have lost both games, conceding as many as 7 goals and scoring 3. Noteć are nevertheless capable of creating chances away from home, with an average xG of 2.52, 26 shots and 9 shots on target per match. The visitors’ main weakness remains their defence: they have conceded an average of 5 goals per away match, failed to keep a clean sheet and lost 100% of their games away from home. Unia’s stronger recent form and home advantage favour the hosts, although Noteć’s attacking potential reduces confidence in this pick.

The strongest signal in favour of BTTS - Yes comes from the current form: in their last 5 matches, both teams recorded this outcome in 60% of games. During this period, Unia averaged 2.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, while Noteć scored 2.0 goals and conceded 1.8, meaning both sides are regularly involved in open matches. Their attacking potential is supported by xG figures of 2.12 for the hosts and 1.90 for the visitors, while the defences allow 1.16 and 1.56 xG respectively. Noteć has recorded BTTS in 100% of its matches in the season data, whereas Unia is yet to score and has not kept a clean sheet; however, its season sample is clearly less reliable than its last five performances. With the league BTTS average standing at 67%, it is more likely that both teams will find the net.

Unia’s last five matches produced an average of 4.2 goals, with the team scoring 2.6 and conceding 1.6 per game. Noteć’s matches over the same period averaged 3.8 goals, with 2.0 scored and 1.8 conceded per game. The attacking potential is confirmed by xG: Unia averaged 2.12 xG, while Noteć recorded 1.90 xG, with the opponents of both teams allowing 1.16 and 1.56 xG respectively. The 2.5 line was covered in 80% of the hosts’ last five matches and in 60% of the visitors’ games, but Over 1.5 is clearly the safer option with a projected total of 3.35 goals. Additionally, both teams recorded goals for both sides in 60% of their last five matches, reducing the risk of a tight match with no more than one goal.

The strongest variant is Unia Swarzędz leading at half-time and winning after 90 minutes, as the hosts have won 3 of their last 5 matches, while Noteć have lost 2 of 5. Unia were leading at the break in 60% of their recent matches, whereas Noteć were trailing at half-time in 40%, which clearly supports the 1/1 scenario. The hosts have recently scored an average of 2.6 goals per match, more than Noteć, who have conceded 1.8 goals per game. However, the advantage is not decisive, as the visitors have averaged 2.0 goals scored, while Unia have conceded 1.6, so half-time draws followed by a home win also account for a significant share of the probability. After the break, Unia averaged 1.4 goals over their last five appearances, compared with Noteć’s 0.8, increasing the hosts’ chances of maintaining or extending their lead.