Unia Swarzędz vs Wda Świecie: match statistics

Wda Świecie remain unbeaten after three matches this season, recording 1 win and 2 draws with a 4:3 goal difference, while both of their away games ended in draws. Unia lost their only home match 0:3 and are yet to score at home, although they created a high volume of chances: averaging 34 shots, 10 on target and an xG of 3.17. This suggests that the hosts have the potential to end their scoring drought, especially given that Wda allow opponents an average xG of 1.62 away from home and have yet to keep a clean sheet. However, the visitors have been more defensively consistent across the season, conceding an average of 1 goal per match compared with Unia’s 3 per home game. Both sides have clear problems maintaining form across their last five matches, making a draw the most likely outcome.

The signal for goals from both sides is clear: in the current competition, both Unia Swarzędz and Wda Świecie have recorded BTTS in 100% of their matches, and neither team has kept a clean sheet. In their last five matches, Wda recorded BTTS in 100% of cases, while Unia did so in 60%, with the teams conceding an average of 3.8 and 2.2 goals per match, respectively. Unia have recently scored an average of 1.8 goals, with an xG of 2.12, while Wda score an average of 1.2 goals and will face a home defence allowing opponents an xG of 1.39. Wda’s defence looks particularly vulnerable, having conceded 19 goals in their last five appearances, with the average xG against them standing at 2.01. In addition, the league has a high BTTS rate of 74%, making BTTS - Yes the more likely outcome, with both teams expected to score at least one goal.

The match profile is conducive to goals, as Unia have averaged 1.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded in their last five matches, while Wda have scored 1.2 and conceded as many as 3.8 goals. During this period, the hosts created chances worth an average of 2.12 xG, while Wda’s defense allowed opponents 2.01 xG. At least three goals were scored in 80% of Unia’s last five matches and in 60% of Wda’s games, with the league average standing at a high 3.59 goals. Both teams have scored and conceded at least once in every match so far this season, further reducing the likelihood of a very low-scoring outcome. The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as the 3.30-goal projection and the visitors’ poor recent defensive record clearly point to at least two goals.

Unia Swarzędz offers the clearer signal for the opening phase of the match: in their last five fixtures, they led at the break in 40% of cases, while Wda Świecie were trailing after 45 minutes as often as 60% of the time. The hosts averaged 1.0 goals scored and 0.6 conceded before half-time, whereas the visitors scored only 0.6 and allowed opponents an average of 2.0 goals. Unia’s recent full-time form also supports a home win scenario: they won 40% of their five matches, compared with Wda’s 20%, with the latter conceding as many as 3.8 goals per game during this period. Unia have also been defensively inconsistent, conceding 2.2 goals per match across the same five fixtures, which is why a significant probability is assigned to draw outcomes or a turnaround after the break. Nevertheless, the strongest individual HT/FT scenario remains a home lead at half-time followed by a home win at full-time.