União Santarém vs UD Oliveirense: match statistics

Both teams started the season without a win: União Santarém lost their only match 0:2, while UD Oliveirense drew their fixture without conceding a goal. In their last five appearances, the hosts scored 4 goals and conceded 7, recording as many as 3 draws, which points to difficulties in turning closely contested matches in their favor. Oliveirense have a slightly better recent record, averaging 1 point per match over their last five games compared with União’s 0.6, and also securing one win. On the other hand, the visitors conceded 8 goals while scoring just 4 during this period, so their advantage is not pronounced enough to strongly favor an away win. A draw appears to be the most likely outcome, although the low scoring efficiency of both teams suggests a cautious and low-scoring match.

The BTTS - No pick has a slight edge, as only 30% of matches in the competition have seen both teams score, while the league-wide average is just 1.9 goals per match. Both teams have scored 4 goals in their last five matches, averaging only 0.8 per game, which increases the risk that one side will fail to break through the opponent’s defence. União Santarém conceded an average of 1.4 goals during this period, compared with 1.6 for Oliveirense, so there is potential for a goal, but this does not guarantee scoring at both ends. The latest BTTS rate of 60% for each team supports the BTTS - Yes scenario, but lower attacking efficiency and the notably low league BTTS percentage more strongly favour the outcome in which at least one team fails to score.

In their last five matches, União Santarém averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, while UD Oliveirense recorded the same 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. The combined scoring output of both teams in these runs stands at 2.2 and 2.4 goals per match, respectively, which does not point to regular four-goal games. xG suggests slightly greater potential, standing at 1.18 against 1.54 allowed by the hosts and 1.42 against 1.57 allowed by the visitors, but the league has a low average of just 1.9 goals per match. Additionally, Over 2.5 goals landed in only 20% of Santarém’s last five matches and 60% of Oliveirense’s games, while the league average for this line is 30%. The projected total of 2.20 goals gives a clear edge to Under 3.5 goals, which should also cover the likely scorelines of 1:1, 1:0 or 2:1.

The strongest signal points to a draw at half-time: both teams were level after 45 minutes in 3 of their last 5 matches, and neither side took the lead before the break during that period. União Santarém averaged 0.4 goals in the first half, while Oliveirense averaged just 0.2, favouring a cautious, low-scoring opening. Across their last five full matches, the hosts drew 60% of the time and the visitors 40%, with both teams averaging just 0.8 goals scored per match. After the break, Oliveirense concede an average of 1.0 goal, but União score only 0.4, so the draw being maintained until full-time is slightly more likely than a home turnaround.