Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt: match statistics

Eintracht Frankfurt head into the match with the better record over their last five games: they have won 4 times and scored 19 goals, averaging 3.8 per match. Union Berlin remain unbeaten during this period, but their 3 wins and 2 draws have resulted in 15 goals scored—4 fewer than their opponents. The visitors are also higher in the table, sitting 6th compared with Union’s 17th position, which further underlines their quality advantage. Neither defence has been flawless, with Union conceding 7 goals and Frankfurt 8 in their last five matches, so the hosts should be able to create chances. Frankfurt’s superior attacking efficiency, along with an average of 2.4 points earned over the last five league rounds compared with Union’s 2.2, nevertheless points to an away win.

Union Berlin recorded BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 3.0 goals and conceding 1.4 per game. Eintracht Frankfurt are in very strong attacking form: they scored 19 goals in five appearances, averaging 3.8 per match, with an impressive average xG of 2.64. The hosts are also creating high-quality chances, as their average xG over the last five matches stands at 1.81, although Frankfurt allowed opponents only 0.70 xG. A warning sign is Frankfurt’s BTTS rate of just 20%; however, their 1.6 goals conceded per match and Union’s high attacking quality suggest that the hosts have a realistic chance of finding the net. Therefore, the scenario in which both teams score is slightly more likely.

The teams’ recent form over their last five matches clearly points to goal-heavy games: Union scored an average of 3.0 goals, while Eintracht averaged as many as 3.8. At the same time, both teams conceded 1.4 and 1.6 goals per match respectively, weakening the case for a low-scoring outcome. Their attacking potential is also reflected in the xG figures: Union averaged 1.81, while Eintracht posted 2.64, although the hosts allowed opponents 1.35 xG. Over 2.5 goals landed in 100% of Union’s last five matches and in 60% of Eintracht’s games, making Over 1.5 goals the safest choice with a projected total of 3.50 goals.

Eintracht Frankfurt has a clearly stronger early-match profile: in their last five matches, they averaged 2.8 goals before half-time, compared with just 0.8 for Union Berlin. The visitors were leading at the break in 60% of those matches and recorded a first-half goal difference of +11, versus only +2 for the hosts. Frankfurt won four of their last five matches, while Union remain unbeaten; however, their three draws in five games point to lower stability in the final outcome. Union are dangerous after the break, scoring an average of 2.2 goals, so turnaround scenarios retain a significant probability. Nevertheless, the strongest individual HT/FT outcome remains a lead for the visitors at half-time followed by a full-time victory, as Frankfurt combine a first-half advantage with an 80% win rate in their most recent run.