Union Berlin vs St. Pauli: match statistics
Union Berlin vs St. Pauli: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Union Berlin played St. Pauli in Bundesliga (Germany). The match was played on 5 April 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Union Berlin: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. St. Pauli: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Union Berlin scores 1.15 and concedes 1.70 goals per match. St. Pauli scores 0.89 and concedes 1.63. League average: 3.21 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Union Berlin 56%, St. Pauli 52%. Over 2.5: Union Berlin 56%, St. Pauli 56%. League level: BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 62%.
xG, shots and style
Union Berlin has higher xG: 1.29 vs 1.22. Union Berlin: 11.9 shots per match, St. Pauli: 10.4.
Match halves
Union Berlin: half-time lead 22%, second-half goals 0.70. St. Pauli: half-time lead 19%, second-half goals 0.52.
Goals by minute
Union Berlin: 76-90+ (11 goals). St. Pauli: 31-45+ (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Bundesliga: 3.21 goals per match, BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 62%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Union Berlin is the favorite in this match; they sit 9th in the table versus St. Pauli’s 16th and have a superior goal record of 31–24 this season. At home Union averages 1.38 goals and 3.62 shots on target per game with a 12% conversion rate, while St. Pauli average only 0.71 away goals, 2.57 shots on target and a 7% conversion, resulting in as many as 43% of away matches without scoring. Defensively both sides are vulnerable — Union concedes 1.62 goals at home and St. Pauli concedes 1.71 away — but the visitors have a much worse away record (goal difference -14 and 71% away defeats), which lowers their realistic chances. In the last 5 matches Union scored 3 and conceded 9, averaging 1.2 points per game, while St. Pauli scored 4 and conceded 5, averaging 1.4 points per game, so the visitors show slightly better points form, but that does not compensate for their weaknesses in creating and finishing chances. Considering the higher home xG of 1.30 versus 1.11 for the visitors, the greater number of shots on target and the lower percentage of matches without a goal (23% vs 43%), I favor a Union victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I back BTTS - Yes based on seasonal signals: Union Berlin has a seasonal BTTS rate of 62% while the league overall records 57%, indicating relatively frequent both-teams-to-score outcomes. Both teams concede regularly: Union averages 1.54 goals conceded per match, St. Pauli 1.71, and a clean sheet for Union occurs in only 15% of matches (St. Pauli 21%), which favors a Goal/Goal scenario. Union creates more chances than the opponent (4.38 shots on target and xG 1.34 versus St. Pauli’s 2.57 shots on target and xG 1.11), so they have a realistic chance to score despite a dip in form. Counterbalancing this are the last 5 matches, where Union has only 20% BTTS and averages 0.6 goals per match (St. Pauli 40% BTTS and 0.8 goals), which reduces confidence in the pick. The weighted indicators suggest a moderate edge for the Yes scenario — I estimate 60% BTTS and 40% No Goal.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I back Over 1.5 as the strongest signal: Union have 77% of home matches with over 1.5 goals, while St. Pauli have 79% away. xG and defensive analysis yield expected ~1.44 goals for Union ((1.34 + 1.53)/2) and ~1.21 for St. Pauli ((1.11 + 1.32)/2), totaling ~2.65 goals, which exceeds the 1.5 line and also moderately supports Over 2.5. Union at home average 1.08 goals scored, 4.38 SOT and a 10% conversion, whereas St. Pauli away average 0.71 goals, 2.57 SOT and a 7% conversion, indicating greater attacking threat from Union. In the last 5 matches Union scored 3 and conceded 9 (0.6/1.8 per game), and St. Pauli 4 and 5 (0.8/1.0), so both teams are prone to conceding, which increases the likelihood of at least two goals.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a Union victory at full-time (X/1). Union were level at the break in 54% of matches, while St. Pauli led at half-time in only 14% of games, which favors a tied score after 45 minutes. The home side are stronger after the interval: they average 0.69 goals in the second half and 1.77 goals in the second halves of their matches, whereas St. Pauli concede an average of 0.93 goals after the break, so the home advantage increases in the second 45 minutes. Union create more high-quality chances (4.38 shots on target versus St. Pauli’s 2.57) and have an xG of 1.34 compared to the visitors’ 1.11, as well as a higher conversion rate (10% vs 7%), which raises the likelihood that the hosts will break the deadlock after half-time. The form and points differential confirm the pick: Union average 1.23 points per home match versus St. Pauli’s 0.57 on the road and a 31% home win rate compared to the visitors’ 14%.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Union Berlin | St. Pauli | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 29% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
St. Pauli is 17% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Union Berlin · 1.4 pts / match - St. Pauli
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Union Berlin is 29% better for: goals scored per match.
1.15 goals / match - Union Berlin · 0.89 goals / match - St. Pauli
Union Berlin scores in 70% of matches (19 of 27 matches), while St. Pauli keeps a clean sheet in 19% (5 of 27 matches).
St. Pauli scores in 59% of matches (16 of 27 matches), while Union Berlin keeps a clean sheet in 22% (6 of 27 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Union Berlin
Over / Under - St. Pauli
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Union Berlin - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 22% of matches and wins 30%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
St. Pauli - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 19% of matches and wins 22%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (11 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (16). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Union Berlin
St. Pauli
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Bundesliga).
Teams vs league
| Union Berlin | Liga | St. Pauli | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.85 | 3.21 | ▼ 2.52 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 56% | 59% | ▼ 52% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 56% | 62% | ▼ 56% |
| Clean sheets | • 22% | 23% | ▼ 19% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 67% | 76% | ▼ 74% |
| Goal after half-time | • 85% | 85% | ▼ 78% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Union Berlin 1 - 0 - 0 St. Pauli. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Union Berlin vs St. Pauli?
The Bundesliga match finished Union Berlin 1:1 St. Pauli. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Union Berlin vs St. Pauli?
Union Berlin score 1.15 goals per game on average and St. Pauli 0.89. The Bundesliga average is 3.21 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 62% of games. Both teams score in 56% of Union Berlin's matches and 52% of St. Pauli's.
What form are Union Berlin and St. Pauli in?
Over the last 5 games Union Berlin have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and St. Pauli 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Union Berlin vs St. Pauli?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.