Union Omaha vs Richmond Kickers: match statistics

Union Omaha are top of the table and remain unbeaten at home, winning 78% of their matches and averaging 2.11 goals scored. The hosts create plenty of high-quality chances: their average home xG is 2.17, alongside 18.44 shots and 6.89 shots on target per match, while Richmond allow opponents an xG of 1.92 away from home. Richmond Kickers sit 16th, have lost 11 of their 19 matches this season, and have scored just 2 goals in their last five games, suffering 3 defeats. The visitors’ problems are particularly evident away from home, where they lose 80% of their matches, concede an average of 2.5 goals, and fail to score in 40% of their appearances. The difference in game control also favors Union Omaha, who average 60% possession compared with Richmond’s 44%, making a convincing home win the most likely outcome.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, primarily due to Richmond’s attacking problems: in their last 5 matches, the team has scored just 2 goals, averaging 0.4 per game. The visitors have failed to score in 40% of their matches this season, while their current BTTS rate stands at just 20%, significantly lower than Union Omaha’s 80% over their last five outings. Union Omaha have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their matches, while Richmond are averaging only 2.9 shots on target per game and currently generate an xG of 1.00. The hosts are in considerably better offensive form, scoring 2.4 goals per game in their last five matches, so the most likely outcome is a home win with a clean sheet rather than necessarily a goalless draw.

Union Omaha are in excellent attacking form: over their last 5 matches, they have averaged 2.4 goals with an xG of 2.12, while Richmond have conceded 1.8 goals per game during the same period. The hosts should also be able to exploit their opponents’ weakness throughout the season, as Richmond have conceded an average of 2.5 goals away from home and have kept a clean sheet in only 10% of matches. At the same time, the visitors have limited attacking potential: they average 0.8 goals, have scored just 2 goals in their last five appearances, and their average xG stands at 1.00. Despite Union Omaha’s advantage, the hosts themselves have not exceeded 2 goals scored in 89% of their matches this season, which limits the probability of a very high-scoring game. The Under 3.5 goals line therefore has the edge, as the projected total of 2.65 goals assumes a home win but does not require an open match with four goals.

Union Omaha are clear favourites: they average 1.11 goals at home, while Richmond concede as many as 2.50 goals per away match and have lost 80% of their games. The home side’s advantage is also evident in the quality of chances, with an average xG of 1.57 compared with Richmond’s 1.19, while Union average 4.89 shots on target to Richmond’s 2.90. Union led at the break in 38% of their matches, whereas Richmond were trailing at half-time in 50% of their games and scored just 0.40 goals in the first half. In their last five matches, the hosts averaged 2.4 goals and won 60% of their games, while their opponents scored only 0.4 goals and suffered defeats in 60% of those matches. The HT/FT scenario of Union Omaha leading at half-time and securing the final victory is therefore the strongest-supported outcome, backed by both the difference in form and Richmond’s very weak away defence.