Union Saint-Gilloise vs Lommel United: match statistics

Union Saint-Gilloise sit 2nd and remain unbeaten after five league matches, recording 4 wins, 1 draw and a 14:3 goal difference, while Lommel United are ninth with 2 wins and 2 defeats. The hosts have scored 11 goals in their last five matches, almost twice as many as the visitors, who have netted 6, while their average number of shots on target at home stands at 5 compared with Lommel’s 2.5 away from home. Union also dominate possession, averaging 57% compared with their opponents’ 41%, and have a home xG of 1.50. The hosts’ defence have yet to concede in home matches, although a high xG against them of 1.34 and two draws in this setting increase Lommel’s chances of keeping the game competitive for a period. The visitors are unbeaten away from home and concede just 0.5 goals per match there, but allow opponents chances worth 2.29 xG, which is why the balance of arguments remains in favour of Union Saint-Gilloise.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as Union Saint-Gilloise have not recorded a Goal/Goal outcome in any of their matches so far, while Lommel have seen this scenario in 50% of their games. The hosts concede just 0.67 goals per match on average, while Lommel have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their appearances and conceded only 0.50 goals per game. The visitors’ offensive inconsistency is particularly significant: according to the 0% rate of matches without scoring, they have not failed to score in any game this season, despite averaging 1.00 goal. In the last five matches, BTTS occurred in only 40% of Union’s games and 20% of Lommel’s, while the visitors conceded just 0.6 goals per match during this period. Both teams average 1.08 xG created per match, but their low goals-conceded averages and defensive performances support the expectation that at least one side will fail to score.

The season profiles of both teams point to a limited number of goals: Union concede an average of 0.67 goals, while Lommel concede just 0.50 per match. Lommel have not exceeded the 2.5-goal line in any of their matches so far this season, and 100% of their games have finished with under 3.5 goals; for Union, the percentage of matches under 3.5 goals stands at 67%. The visitors score an average of 1.00 goal with a 9% shooting accuracy, while Union record 2.67 shots on target per match, limiting the potential for a very high-scoring game. Union’s last five matches have been more open, averaging 2.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, but Lommel have conceded only 0.6 goals per game during this period. The projected 2.30 goals leaves a clear margin below four goals, making Under 3.5 the best option.

Union Saint-Gilloise are in clearly better form: they have averaged 2.2 goals and won 60% of their matches over their last five games, while Lommel have recorded 1.2 goals and a 40% win rate. The hosts tend to start matches strongly, having led at the break in 40% of these games without losing any first half, whereas the visitors were behind at half-time in 20% of their matches. Union’s advantage is reinforced after the interval: they have averaged 1.2 second-half goals across their last five matches, compared with Lommel’s 0.6. Although both teams have an identical average xG of 1.08, the hosts are more clinical, converting 14% of their shots into goals compared with 9% for their opponents. The most likely scenario is therefore that Union take the lead before half-time and maintain it until the final whistle.