Unión Santa Fe vs Sarmiento: match statistics

Unión Santa Fe have a clearly stronger home profile: they average 1.4 goals scored, concede just 0.8, and keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches. The hosts also create significantly more chances, recording an average xG of 2.21 and 20.9 shots per game, while Sarmiento average an xG of 1.03 and just 8.3 shots away from home. Sarmiento are enjoying a strong run of form, winning 4 of their last 5 matches and scoring 10 goals in the process, but their away record remains poor: 80% losses, an average of 1.8 goals conceded, and no clean sheets. In addition, the visitors have failed to score in 50% of their away fixtures, while Unión lose only 20% of their home matches. The hosts’ advantage in game control, chance quality and defensive solidity points towards a home win, although Sarmiento’s current attacking efficiency increases the risk of a closely contested match.

Recent form clearly supports goals from both sides: Unión recorded BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches, while Sarmiento did so in 60%. During this period, the hosts scored and conceded 1.4 goals per match, whereas the visitors scored 2.0 goals and conceded just 1.0. Unión should create chances against a Sarmiento defence that concedes an average of 1.8 goals away from home and has failed to keep a clean sheet even once. Sarmiento have a weaker full-season away average, scoring only 0.8 goals, but their recent xG stands at 1.41, while Unión allow an average xG of 1.50, increasing the visitors’ chances of scoring. Unión’s 58% season-long clean-sheet rate is the main argument against BTTS - Yes; however, the current form of both teams slightly tips the prediction towards BTTS - Yes.

Unión Santa Fe score an average of 1.42 goals per match, while Sarmiento concede as many as 1.80 away from home, clearly supporting the hosts’ attacking output. The hosts create an average of 1.47 xG and register 4.58 shots on target, while Sarmiento have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their matches. Recent form further boosts the goal potential: across their last five matches, Unión averaged 1.4 goals, while Sarmiento averaged as many as 2.0, with 80% and 60% of matches respectively finishing Over 2.5 goals. At the same time, the underlying league environment is low-scoring, with an average of 2.07 goals, and only 17% of Unión’s matches and 20% of Sarmiento’s exceeded 3.5 goals, making the safer Over 1.5 the clearest edge.

A draw at half-time followed by a Sarmiento win is the most likely HT/FT outcome, as Unión have scored just 0.25 goals before the break in their last five matches, compared with Sarmiento’s average of 0.8 first-half goals. The visitors are in significantly better current form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 2.0 goals per game, while Unión have lost 3 of their last 5 and conceded an average of 1.4 goals. Sarmiento led at the break in 60% of their last five matches, but Unión’s low average of 0.5 first-half goals, combined with the visitors conceding just 0.2 goals in that period, points to a cautious opening and a half-time draw. After the break, Sarmiento have recently averaged 1.2 goals per match, while Unión have conceded 1.0 goal during this period, increasing the visitors’ chances of turning an evenly matched game in their favour.