Universitario vs Alianza Lima: match statistics
Universitario vs Alianza Lima: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Universitario played Alianza Lima in Primera División (Peru). The match was played on 5 April 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Universitario: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. Alianza Lima: 4-1-0, 2.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Universitario scores 1.38 and concedes 0.88 goals per match. Alianza Lima scores 1.50 and concedes 0.50. League average: 2.66 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Universitario 50%, Alianza Lima 50%. Over 2.5: Universitario 38%, Alianza Lima 38%. League level: BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 52%.
xG, shots and style
Universitario has higher xG: 1.58 vs 1.40. Universitario: 14.9 shots per match, Alianza Lima: 13.5.
Match halves
Universitario: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 1.00. Alianza Lima: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 1.00.
Goals by minute
Universitario: 61-75 (4 goals). Alianza Lima: 76-90+ (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Primera División: 2.66 goals per match, BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 52%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-2-0. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back the home win. Universitario averages 1.75 goals per home match, has an average xG of 1.63 and concedes only 0.25 goals per match, with 75% clean sheets and 100% wins at their stadium, indicating a very solid defense. Alianza Lima is in strong overall form (4 wins and 1 draw in the last 5, 2.6 points per match), but away they score only 1.0 goal on average, have xG 0.93 and 25% of away matches without scoring, which limits their offensive potential. Additionally Universitario creates more chances (15.75 shots and 4 on target at home versus 9 shots and 2 on target for Alianza) and maintains higher possession (59% vs 55%), translating into better quality opportunities. Considering the home side’s 0.25 average goals conceded versus Alianza’s 0.5 conceded away and the advantage in xG and shot volume, the probability distribution is about 60% for Universitario, 20% for a draw and 20% for an Alianza win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
After analysis I assign 40% to BTTS (Yes) and 60% to No BTTS, therefore I recommend "No". Universitario averages 2.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per match this season, with xG 1.87 and xG against 0.69 and an average of 18.0 shots and 6.75 shots on target, indicating a high home scoring potential. Alianza Lima has a seasonal xG of 0.93, averages 9.0 shots and only 2.0 shots on target and a season BTTS rate of 50%, which limits their realistic chances to score despite 8 goals scored and 2 conceded in the last 5 matches (averages 1.6 and 0.4). Both teams have a season clean sheet rate of 50% and BTTS in the last 5 matches is 40% for each; seasonally both concede on average 0.5 goals, which together argues more strongly for one clean sheet than for both teams scoring. Therefore the strongest signal from the data is No BTTS.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The model projects 1.50 goals for Universitario and 0.81 for Alianza, totaling 2.31 goals — below the league average of 2.61 goals per match. Universitario averages 2.0 goals per game with xG 1.87 and 6.75 shots on target, while Alianza averages 1.0 goal and xG 0.93 with only 2.0 shots on target, indicating greater chance creation from the home side. Both teams concede on average 0.5 goals, and season Over 3.5 rates are 25% for the home team and 0% for the visitors, so high-scoring results are rare. From the projected 2.31 goals I estimate roughly a 67% probability for Over 1.5, about 41% for Over 2.5 and about 20% for Over 3.5 (i.e. Under 3.5 ~80%). Therefore my strongest signal is Under 3.5 — it has the highest probability and aligns with the low season Over 3.5 rates.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Universitario holds a clear offensive advantage: xG_for 1.87 versus 0.93 for Alianza Lima, averaging 18 shots to 9 and 6.75 shots on target to 2.0, which translates into an average of 2.0 goals per home match versus 1.0 for the visitors. At Half-Time the hosts are favored — Universitario averages 0.75 goals by the break, Alianza Lima 0.25, and the hosts led at the break in 2 matches (50%) while the visitors had 0% lead at the break, so the scenario of the hosts leading at the break is the strongest. Seasonal results confirm the edge: Universitario has 100% home wins and an average of 3.0 points at home, whereas Alianza Lima has 50% wins and 2.0 points on the road, which increases the chance of holding the lead until Full-Time. However, recent form over the last 5 matches favors the visitors — Alianza Lima won 4 of 5 (80%) while Universitario won 2 of 5 (40%), so the distribution also accounts for Half-Time draws and a possible turnaround by the visitors. On that basis the most reliable signal is 1/1 (lead at the break for Universitario and Full-Time win), which I assign the highest probability to, with significant weight also given to X/1 and X/X due to 50% Half-Time draws for the hosts.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Universitario | Alianza Lima | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 30% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Alianza Lima is 63% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - Universitario · 2.6 pts / match - Alianza Lima
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Alianza Lima is 9% better for: goals scored per match.
1.38 goals / match - Universitario · 1.5 goals / match - Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima is 76% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.88 goals / match - Universitario · 0.5 goals / match - Alianza Lima
Universitario scores in 88% of matches (7 of 8 matches), while Alianza Lima keeps a clean sheet in 50% (4 of 8 matches).
Alianza Lima scores in 88% of matches (7 of 8 matches), while Universitario keeps a clean sheet in 50% (4 of 8 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Universitario
Over / Under - Alianza Lima
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Alianza Lima is 9% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.38 pts / match - Universitario · 1.5 pts / match - Alianza Lima
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Universitario - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.6 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Alianza Lima - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 75%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +1 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +5 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (4 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (6 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): +6 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Universitario
Alianza Lima
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Primera División).
Teams vs league
| Universitario | Liga | Alianza Lima | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.25 | 2.66 | ▼ 2.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 50% | 57% | ▼ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 38% | 52% | ▼ 38% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 50% | 26% | ▲ 50% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 38% | 66% | ▼ 50% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 88% | 81% | ▼ 75% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Universitario 0 - 2 - 0 Alianza Lima. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Universitario vs Alianza Lima?
The Primera División match finished Universitario 1:0 Alianza Lima. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Universitario and Alianza Lima?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Universitario won 0, Alianza Lima won 0 and 2 ended level. These games averaged 1.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Universitario vs Alianza Lima?
Universitario score 1.38 goals per game on average and Alianza Lima 1.50. The Primera División average is 2.66 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 52% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Universitario's matches and 50% of Alianza Lima's.
What form are Universitario and Alianza Lima in?
Over the last 5 games Universitario have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Alianza Lima 4-1-0 (2.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Universitario vs Alianza Lima?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Universitario vs Alianza Lima: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.