Universitatea Cluj vs SSC Farul: match statistics

Analysis of the last 5 matches shows Universitatea Cluj scored only 2 goals in those games (0.4 goals per match) and conceded 7 goals (1.4 per match), recording 4 draws and 1 loss. SSC Farul in the same period scored 11 goals (2.2 per match) but also conceded 11 goals (2.2 per match), with a record of 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses and an average of 1.0 point per match. Farul’s key advantage is a significantly better offensive efficiency (11 vs 2 goals in 5 matches), while Cluj’s edge is a tendency toward draws (4 of 5 games) and slightly better defensive numbers (7 conceded vs 11 for the visitors). Considering Cluj’s lack of wins in the analyzed period (position 14) and Farul’s offensive but unstable profile (position 13), the most likely outcome appears to be a draw, although the visitors have a real chance to win thanks to their attacking advantage. Therefore I propose the probability distribution: draw as the most likely scenario at 50%, away win 30% and home win 20%.

In the last 5 matches the BTTS rate is 40% for Universitatea Cluj and 80% for SSC Farul (average 60%), which already favors the “both teams to score” scenario. The visitors average 2.2 goals scored in the last 5 (11 goals in 5 matches) and xG for 2.43, while the hosts score only 0.4 goals and have xG for 0.79. Both defenses are vulnerable — Cluj concedes 1.4 goals per game (7 in 5), and Farul concedes 2.2 goals per game (11 in 5), which increases the likelihood of both teams scoring. The xG against comparison shows 2.2 for the hosts versus 1.13 for the visitors, meaning Farul should create more chances against Cluj’s weaker defense. Considering the league BTTS value of 50% and the strong attacking/defensive numbers, I assign 78% to BTTS - Yes and 22% to No Goal.

In the last 5 matches SSC Farul shows a significantly stronger attack: xG 2.43 and 11 goals scored (avg 2.2), while Universitatea Cluj has xG 0.79 and only 2 goals in those five matches (avg 0.4). Accounting for opponents' xG (Cluj concedes 2.20 xG, Farul 1.13 xG), expected goals are approximately 0.96 for the home side and 2.32 for the visitors, totaling 3.28 goals. A Poisson model for sum λ=3.28 yields roughly an 84% chance of over 1.5 goals, about 64% for Over 2.5 goals and around 42% for Over 3.5 goals. Additionally, 60% of Farul’s last 5 matches finished Over 2.5 goals, and 80% of those matches saw both teams score, which reinforces the case for the over. Given the projected 3.28 goals and the clear offensive advantage of the visitors, I recommend backing Over 2.5 goals as the best value.

Analysis of the last 5 matches shows SSC Farul averages 2.2 goals per game versus Universitatea Cluj’s 0.4, giving the visitors a clear offensive edge. Crucially, the visitors score an average of 2.2 goals after the break and their matches average 3.6 goals in second halves, while the hosts score only 0.2 goals after the break; this suggests Farul improves performance in the second half. Goals at half-time are rare — the hosts led at the break in 20% of the last 5 matches and the visitors in 0% — and the first-half goals average about 0.8, which increases the likelihood of a draw at the break. Additionally, 100% of the visitors’ last 5 matches had at least 1 goal in the second half versus 60% for the hosts, therefore the strongest signal is Half-Time/Full-Time draw at the break and the visitors to win the match (X/2).