UPDF vs BUL: match statistics
BUL displays clearly better form in the last five matches, earning 1.2 points per match compared to UPDF's mere 0.4 points. The hosts sit in 14th place and haven't won any of their last five meetings, showing very poor home form (17% win rate). BUL demonstrates greater offensive efficiency in away matches, recording an average of 4.4 shots on target per match and a higher conversion rate (8% vs 6%). UPDF fails to score in 50% of home matches, which, combined with the visitors' better efficiency, points towards a BUL victory. Higher xG values for the visitors (1.49 vs 1.45) and their superior disposition suggest BUL has better chances of winning, though the instability of both teams leaves room for a draw.
UPDF vs BUL: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
UPDF played BUL in Uganda Premier League (Uganda). The match was played on 30 January 2026. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
UPDF: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match. BUL: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
UPDF scores 0.86 and concedes 1.64 goals per match. BUL scores 0.93 and concedes 1.14. League average: 2.32 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: UPDF 43%, BUL 50%. Over 2.5: UPDF 50%, BUL 43%. League level: BTTS 44%, Over 2.5 41%.
xG, shots and style
UPDF has higher xG: 1.53 vs 1.52. UPDF: 11.0 shots per match, BUL: 9.7.
Match halves
UPDF: half-time lead 14%, second-half goals 0.50. BUL: half-time lead 36%, second-half goals 0.21.
Goals by minute
UPDF: 46-60 (4 goals). BUL: 31-45+ (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Uganda Premier League: 2.32 goals per match, BTTS 44%, Over 2.5 41%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
BUL displays clearly better form in the last five matches, earning 1.2 points per match compared to UPDF's mere 0.4 points. The hosts sit in 14th place and haven't won any of their last five meetings, showing very poor home form (17% win rate). BUL demonstrates greater offensive efficiency in away matches, recording an average of 4.4 shots on target per match and a higher conversion rate (8% vs 6%). UPDF fails to score in 50% of home matches, which, combined with the visitors' better efficiency, points towards a BUL victory. Higher xG values for the visitors (1.49 vs 1.45) and their superior disposition suggest BUL has better chances of winning, though the instability of both teams leaves room for a draw.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| UPDF | BUL | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 23% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
BUL is 200% better for: last-5 form.
0.4 pts / match - UPDF · 1.2 pts / match - BUL
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
BUL is 8% better for: goals scored per match.
0.86 goals / match - UPDF · 0.93 goals / match - BUL
BUL is 44% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.64 goals / match - UPDF · 1.14 goals / match - BUL
UPDF scores in 64% of matches (9 of 14 matches), while BUL keeps a clean sheet in 36% (5 of 14 matches).
BUL scores in 71% of matches (10 of 14 matches), while UPDF keeps a clean sheet in 29% (4 of 14 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - UPDF
Over / Under - BUL
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
BUL is 99% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.79 pts / match - UPDF · 1.57 pts / match - BUL
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
UPDF - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 14% of matches and wins 21%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
BUL - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 36% of matches and wins 29%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -5 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (4 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
UPDF
BUL
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Uganda Premier League).
Teams vs league
| UPDF | Liga | BUL | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.50 | 2.32 | ▼ 2.07 |
| Both teams scored | • 43% | 44% | ▲ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 50% | 41% | ▲ 43% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 29% | 34% | ▲ 36% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 71% | 61% | ▲ 71% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 71% | 62% | ▼ 36% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
FAQ
What was the result of UPDF vs BUL?
The Uganda Premier League match finished UPDF 0:1 BUL. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before UPDF vs BUL?
UPDF score 0.86 goals per game on average and BUL 0.93. The Uganda Premier League average is 2.32 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 41% of games. Both teams score in 43% of UPDF's matches and 50% of BUL's.
What form are UPDF and BUL in?
Over the last 5 games UPDF have a 0-2-3 record (0.40 points per game) and BUL 2-0-3 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for UPDF vs BUL?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for UPDF vs BUL: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.