Urawa Reds vs Fagiano Okayama: match statistics

Urawa Reds are in noticeably better current form, having won 4 of their last 5 matches and scored 11 goals in the process, while Fagiano Okayama have recorded 3 wins, a draw and a defeat. The hosts average 2 goals per game at home and have scored in every such outing, which could exploit the fact that the visitors concede an average of 1.67 goals away from home. Okayama do, however, create high-quality chances, as evidenced by their away xG of 1.70 alongside just 1.10 xG conceded defensively, as well as an average of 16.67 shots per match. Urawa’s biggest issue is their defence: at home, they allow opponents an xG of 2.06 and concede as many as 3 goals per game, without keeping a single clean sheet. Urawa’s advantage in form and attacking efficiency gives the hosts a slight edge, but their high vulnerability at the back means an away victory remains a very realistic scenario.

The case for both teams to score is reinforced by their current form: in their last 5 matches, Urawa averaged 2.2 goals and Okayama 1.8, with a BTTS rate of 60% for both teams. During this period, the hosts conceded 1.4 goals per match, while their average xG against was 1.50, giving the visitors a realistic chance of scoring. Okayama have kept a clean sheet in none of their matches this season and allow opponents an average of 1.67 goals, while Urawa create chances worth 1.66 xG. Caution is warranted due to Urawa’s highly solid defensive record throughout the season, with an average of just 0.67 goals conceded and 67% clean sheets, but the more recent data point more clearly towards a BTTS - Yes scenario at 59%.

The latest form of both teams clearly points toward goals: Urawa have scored an average of 2.2 goals in their last five matches, while Okayama have averaged 1.8. Over the same period, the hosts conceded 1.4 goals per game, compared with 1.0 for the visitors, providing a solid basis for expecting chances at both ends. Their attacking potential also remains high, with average xG figures from the last five matches of 1.83 for Urawa and 1.52 for Okayama. Okayama concede an average of 1.67 goals away from home, while Urawa register 16.33 shots per match at home, so the hosts should significantly increase the likelihood of at least two goals in total. Over 1.5 is the safest choice, as the last five matches for each team produced over 2.5 goals in 80% of cases, although the Over 2.5 line already carries greater variance.

A half-time draw followed by a Urawa victory is the most likely outcome, as the hosts were level after 45 minutes in 2 of their 3 matches so far, as were Fagiano. Urawa average 2.33 points per match and remain unbeaten, while Okayama average just 1.00 point and have lost 67% of their matches. The hosts’ defensive record is also crucial: they concede only 0.67 goals per match and have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their appearances, compared with the visitors’ average of 1.67 goals conceded and no clean sheets. After the break, Urawa score an average of 0.67 goals, rising to 1.00 over their last five matches, which supports a turnaround after an evenly balanced opening. Despite similar xG figures—1.66 for Urawa and 1.70 for Okayama—the hosts’ superior results and significantly more stable defence point to the X/1 scenario.