USM Alger vs Paradou AC: match statistics
USM Alger vs Paradou AC: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
USM Alger played Paradou AC in Ligue 1 (Algeria). The match was played on 22 May 2026. Final score: 4:2.
Current form
USM Alger: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match. Paradou AC: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
USM Alger scores 1.00 and concedes 0.79 goals per match. Paradou AC scores 1.18 and concedes 1.71. League average: 2.23 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: USM Alger 50%, Paradou AC 50%. Over 2.5: USM Alger 25%, Paradou AC 50%. League level: BTTS 48%, Over 2.5 38%.
xG, shots and style
USM Alger has higher xG: 1.66 vs 1.11. USM Alger: 10.8 shots per match, Paradou AC: 7.4.
Match halves
USM Alger: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 0.42. Paradou AC: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.64.
Goals by minute
USM Alger: 0-15 (5 goals). Paradou AC: 0-15 (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ligue 1: 2.23 goals per match, BTTS 48%, Over 2.5 38%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
The match favorite is USM Alger (home win), primarily due to defensive superiority and game control: the hosts concede only 0.69 goals per home match on average, while Paradou concede 1.93 on the road. USM also posts significantly better chance-quality metrics – average xG for the hosts at home is 1.87 versus Paradou's 1.01 xG away, and the hosts average 13.15 shots (6.54 on target) compared to 6.86 (3.36 on target) for the visitors. Paradou have scored more goals this season (33 vs 24) and have 8 goals in the last 5 matches versus USM's 5, but that is offset by their poor defence (48 goals conceded this season and only 7% clean sheets away). Additionally, USM have been collecting more points recently (2.0 points per match in the last 5 vs 1.4 for Paradou) and at home suffer only 15% defeats with 46% clean sheets, while Paradou lose 79% of away fixtures. Considering defensive stability and superiority in chance quality, I assess a 60% probability of a home win, 25% for a draw and 15% for an away win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Paradou AC has a seasonal BTTS rate of 57% versus 43% for USM Alger, with a league average of 48%, tilting slightly in favor of the Both Teams To Score scenario. USM at home scores 1.29 and concedes 1.50 per match, Paradou away scores 1.07 and concedes 1.93; both teams generate xG above 1.00 (USM 1.22, Paradou 1.01) while allowing xG against of 1.55 and 1.48 respectively, so there are goal-scoring opportunities on both sides. The difference in clean sheet percentages is significant: USM has 36% clean sheets, Paradou only 7%, meaning Paradou rarerly finishes matches without conceding and more often contributes to BTTS. In the last 5 matches BTTS for the home side is 40% and for the away side 60%, and numerically both teams scored 5 (USM) and 8 (Paradou) goals while conceding 3 and 7 in their last 5 games, which further supports the 'both to score' scenario. Summing these data points (seasonal 43%/57%, clean sheets 36%/7%, recent form 40%/60% and xG 1.22/1.01 against 1.55/1.48) yields my assessment of 60% for BTTS - Yes and 40% for No.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Based on xG: USM has xG_for 1.22, Paradou 1.01, and xG_against 1.55 (USM) and 1.48 (Paradou); averaging these values yields expected xG of 1.35 for the home side and 1.28 for the visitors, totaling 2.63 goals. A Poisson model with λ=2.63 gives roughly a 74% chance of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) and about 49% for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5), therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5. Match stats confirm this: USM averages 8.62 shots and 4.46 on target, Paradou 6.86 and 3.36; with a conversion rate of 16% this yields approximately 1.38 and 1.10 goals from shots, consistent with the calculated xG. Season percentages show 71% of matches for both teams finished Over 1.5 (USM 71%, Paradou 71%), while only 43% of home matches and 57% of away matches exceeded 2.5 goals, which explains the lower confidence for Over 2.5 (~49%). Based on xG=1.35 vs 1.28, shot counts and seasonal percentages, I recommend Over 1.5 as the best and least risky line to play.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
USM Alger averages 1.29 goals scored and concedes 1.50 per match this season, while Paradou records 1.07 scored and 1.93 conceded; the home side’s xG is 1.22 versus 1.01 for the visitors, and the hosts average 4.46 shots on target compared to 3.36 for Paradou, indicating an advantage in chance creation. At half-time USM led in 29% of matches this season and in 40% of their last five (2 of 5), whereas Paradou led in only 21% this season and 20% of their last five (1 of 5), so the probability of the hosts holding the lead at the break is higher. Paradou have a 79% loss rate away and average 0.5 points per away match, while USM earn 1.21 points per home match and have a 60% win rate in their last five, which increases the likelihood they will maintain a win through full-time. Additionally, USM keep a clean sheet at half-time in 43% of matches season-to-date and have superior average xG and shots on target; average goals by half are 0.57 for the hosts versus 0.5 for the visitors. Therefore the most realistic scenario is the home side leading at half-time and winning the match (HT/FT 1/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| USM Alger | Paradou AC | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 48% | 50% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.19 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Paradou AC is 75% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - USM Alger · 1.4 pts / match - Paradou AC
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Paradou AC is 18% better for: goals scored per match.
1 goals / match - USM Alger · 1.18 goals / match - Paradou AC
USM Alger is 116% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.79 goals / match - USM Alger · 1.71 goals / match - Paradou AC
USM Alger scores in 71% of matches (17 of 24 matches), while Paradou AC keeps a clean sheet in 21% (6 of 28 matches).
Paradou AC scores in 68% of matches (19 of 28 matches), while USM Alger keeps a clean sheet in 38% (9 of 24 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - USM Alger
Over / Under - Paradou AC
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
USM Alger is 44% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.38 pts / match - USM Alger · 0.96 pts / match - Paradou AC
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
USM Alger - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 29%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Paradou AC - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 25%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 0.2 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 20% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 100% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 80% |
| No goal | 80% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -3 | +4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (5 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (7 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (14). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
USM Alger
Paradou AC
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ligue 1).
Teams vs league
| USM Alger | Liga | Paradou AC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.79 | 2.23 | ▲ 2.89 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 50% | 48% | ▲ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 25% | 38% | ▲ 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 38% | 30% | ▼ 21% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 67% | 64% | ▲ 82% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 50% | 71% | ▲ 75% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: USM Alger 1 - 0 - 0 Paradou AC. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of USM Alger vs Paradou AC?
The Ligue 1 match finished USM Alger 4:2 Paradou AC. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before USM Alger vs Paradou AC?
USM Alger score 1.00 goals per game on average and Paradou AC 1.18. The Ligue 1 average is 2.23 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 38% of games. Both teams score in 50% of USM Alger's matches and 50% of Paradou AC's.
What form are USM Alger and Paradou AC in?
Over the last 5 games USM Alger have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Paradou AC 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for USM Alger vs Paradou AC?
The statistical background for USM Alger vs Paradou AC — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.