UTC Cajamarca vs Juan Pablo II College: match statistics

UTC Cajamarca are in a very poor run of form, earning just 1 point from their last 5 matches, scoring 6 goals and conceding 12. At home, however, the hosts draw as many as 50% of their matches, with an average xG of 1.47 compared to 1.43 allowed to opponents, suggesting a closely contested profile on home soil. Juan Pablo II College are in better current form, collecting 8 points and recording a 10–7 goal difference across their last five outings. Away from home, though, the visitors have a 58% loss rate, concede an average of 2.50 goals per match and have not kept a single clean sheet, so their form advantage may not be enough to secure victory. A high-scoring draw appears the most likely outcome, although the weak defensive records of both teams leave the door open for a decisive result.

The signal for both teams to score is clear, as BTTS has occurred in 69% of UTC Cajamarca’s matches this season and 67% of Juan Pablo II College’s games, compared with the league average of 57%. The visitors have not kept a single clean sheet and concede an average of 2.50 goals per match, which strongly supports a goal for the hosts, who average 1.62 goals at home. Juan Pablo II College have scored 10 goals in their last 5 matches, while UTC Cajamarca have conceded 12 during the same period—an average of 2.40 per game. The hosts do have just 1.20 goals per match across their last five outings, but their opponents allow plenty of chances, with an average xG conceded of 1.59. In addition, BTTS landed in 80% of UTC Cajamarca’s last five matches and in 60% of Juan Pablo II College’s games, making a goal for both sides the more likely scenario.

The strongest signal points to at least two goals: UTC Cajamarca’s matches went over 1.5 goals in 92% of cases, while Juan Pablo II College’s matches did so in 100%. The visitors concede an average of 2.50 goals per match and have kept no clean sheets, whereas the hosts score an average of 1.62 goals. Recent form further increases the scoring potential, with UTC Cajamarca conceding 12 goals in their last five matches and Juan Pablo II College scoring 10 during the same period. The estimated 3.40 goals is clearly above the 1.5 line, making Over 1.5 the strongest and most stable value selection.

A half-time draw is the most likely outcome, as Juan Pablo II were level at the break in 40% of their last five matches, while UTC Cajamarca failed to take the lead in 40% of those games. However, the visitors are clearly superior in terms of current form: over their last five league matches, they have averaged 2.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, compared with the hosts’ averages of 1.2 scored and as many as 2.4 conceded. Juan Pablo II’s advantage should become particularly pronounced after half-time, as UTC have scored only 0.4 goals after the break in their last five matches while allowing opponents 1.4. On a season-long basis, the visitors’ defence remains vulnerable, with an average of 2.5 goals conceded per match, so a half-time draw is a safer assumption than backing them to lead early, although their current form points towards an away win at full-time.