UTC Cajamarca vs Sport Boys: match statistics

Season data show UTC create more chances at home — averaging 1.29 goals scored, 1.14 conceded, xG 1.32 vs xG against 1.17 and 4.29 shots on target per match with a conversion rate of 11%. However, in the last 5 matches the hosts have conceded as many as 11 goals, scored 5 and have a record of 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses (PPG 0.2), indicating serious defensive issues. Sport Boys away average 0.86 scored and 2.00 conceded, with xG 1.17 vs xG against 1.52 and season FTS 43%, but in the last 5 matches they scored 5 and conceded only 4, with a record of 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss (PPG 1.6). The form gap is decisive: UTC PPG 0.2 vs Sport Boys 1.6 and 11 goals conceded by the hosts versus 4 for the visitors in the last five fixtures suggest higher chances for an away win.

I predict BTTS - Yes with a 65% probability: UTC have xG_for 1.60, while Sport Boys concede around 1.52 xG seasonally and concede on average 2.00 goals per match, which increases the chance of the hosts scoring. Additionally, Sport Boys have generated xG_for 1.78 in their last 5 matches and scored 5 goals, whereas UTC conceded 11 goals in those 5 games (2.2 per match), suggesting the hosts can also be breached. There are counter-signals: seasonally UTC have 63% clean sheets and the hosts’ seasonal BTTS is only 38%, and Sport Boys fail to score in 43% of matches, which weakens the both-teams-to-score scenario. However, considering the importance of recent form and xG values, plus the league BTTS rate at 56% and that Sport Boys’ matches finish over 2.5 goals in 57% of cases, the 'Yes' tip appears better justified.

xG and defensive analysis yields a combined expected goal total of approximately 2.66: the home side has an attacking xG of 1.60 and the opponent concedes on average xG 1.52, translating to ~1.56 expected home goals; the visitors have attacking xG 1.17 while the hosts concede xG 1.02, giving ~1.10 expected away goals. Using a Poisson distribution with mean 2.66, the probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) is about 74%, while Over 2.5 is ~50% and Over 3.5 ~28%. Seasonal rates support this projection: Over 0.5 occurs for UTC in 75% of matches and for Sport Boys in 100%, and Over 1.5 is 50% for the hosts and 57% for the visitors; the league average is 2.67 goals/match. A counterpoint is the hosts’ defensive form over the last 5 matches — UTC conceded 11 goals (2.2 per match) versus 4 conceded by Sport Boys (0.8 per match) — which introduces some risk, but the combined xG and frequent overs for the visitors keep the goals direction favored. As a result, the strongest and most value-driven signal from the data is to back Over 1.5.

UTC Cajamarca has a statistical edge: at home they average 1.63 points per match and generate 1.60 xG, whereas Sport Boys average 0.43 points away and 1.17 xG. At Half-Time the most likely outcome is a draw — the home side were level at the break in 63% of matches, the visitors were trailing at the break in 71% of their games, and the hosts lead at the break in only 13% of cases. The hosts concede on average 0.63 goals per match versus 2.00 conceded by the away side and keep a clean sheet at home in 63% of fixtures, suggesting a low number of first-half goals but a defensive advantage for the home team. Second-half metrics also favour UTC — they win 63% of second halves and average 0.88 goals after the break, so they are more likely to determine the result in the second half. Therefore the most reliable scenario appears to be a draw at Half-Time and a home win at Full-Time (X/1).