Utrecht vs NAC Breda: match statistics
Utrecht vs NAC Breda: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Utrecht played NAC Breda in Eredivisie (Netherlands). The match was played on 2 May 2026. Final score: 2:0.
Current form
Utrecht: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match. NAC Breda: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Utrecht scores 1.58 and concedes 1.32 goals per match. NAC Breda scores 0.97 and concedes 1.71. League average: 3.18 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Utrecht 61%, NAC Breda 48%. Over 2.5: Utrecht 52%, NAC Breda 52%. League level: BTTS 62%, Over 2.5 62%.
xG, shots and style
Utrecht has higher xG: 1.59 vs 1.50. Utrecht: 14.7 shots per match, NAC Breda: 14.0.
Match halves
Utrecht: half-time lead 45%, second-half goals 0.87. NAC Breda: half-time lead 19%, second-half goals 0.55.
Goals by minute
Utrecht: 31-45+ (11 goals). NAC Breda: 76-90+ (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Eredivisie: 3.18 goals per match, BTTS 62%, Over 2.5 62%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Utrecht holds a clear statistical edge, so I back the home win. At home Utrecht averages 1.8 goals per match and wins 53% of home games, while NAC Breda on the road averages just 0.8 goals and only 7% wins. Defensively the gap is even larger — NAC concedes 2.0 goals away on average, compared to Utrecht’s 0.87 at home, translating into a +14 goal difference for Utrecht at home versus -18 for NAC away. Additionally Utrecht generates 1.7 average xG at home with 5.53 shots on target and an 11% conversion rate, whereas NAC has 1.42 xG, 3.73 shots on target and a 6% conversion and in the last 5 matches scored only 2 goals and failed to win (0-2-3, 0.4 points per game). Considering the advantage in scoring efficiency (1.8 vs 0.8), defense (0.87 vs 2.0), xG (1.7 vs 1.42) and form, the hosts look like clear favorites.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I back BTTS (Both Teams To Score) based on a combined xG of approximately 3.00 (1.58 for Utrecht and 1.42 for NAC), indicating sufficient scoring opportunities from both sides. The league shows a strong BTTS tendency at 62%, while team-season BTTS rates are 50% for Utrecht and 47% for NAC, so the league trend reinforces this scenario. Both defenses are prone to conceding: NAC concedes 2.0 goals per game with only 13% clean sheets, and Utrecht concedes 1.44 goals per game with 19% clean sheets; furthermore Utrecht has scored 49 goals this season while NAC has conceded 53. However, caution is warranted as NAC have scored only 2 goals in their last 5 matches (0.4 per game) and have a low season shot conversion of 6%, which reduces confidence in their scoring. Considering the combined xG=3.00, low clean sheet percentages (19% and 13%) and the 62% league BTTS tendency, I rate BTTS at 60% vs 40% for No Goal.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I estimate the home goals at 1.53 (home xG 1.58 vs NAC average conceded 1.48) and away goals at 1.41 (NAC xG 1.42 vs Utrecht average conceded 1.40), giving a total of 2.94 goals. A Poisson model with λ=2.94 yields probabilities of Over 1.5 ≈79%, Over 2.5 ≈56% and Over 3.5 ≈34%. Season data supports this: Utrecht have Over 1.5 in 63% of home matches, NAC have Over 1.5 in 73% of away matches, and the league goals average is 3.18 per game. Additionally, in the last 5 matches Utrecht scored 11 goals (2.2 per game) and conceded 10 (2.0), while NAC scored 2 (0.4) and conceded 11 (2.2), indicating higher home attacking efficiency but also potential for exchanges. Therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (≈79% chance), so I recommend playing Over 1.5 as the most justified line.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Utrecht is the favorite to have the lead at the break and to maintain the win: in the last 5 matches the home side led at half-time in 4 of 5 (80%) and won 3 of 5 (60%), with an average first-half goals of 1.2. NAC Breda did not lead at half-time in this period (0%) and averaged 0.0 first-half goals, indicating the visitors’ weakness in the first 45 minutes. Seasonally Utrecht generates higher xG (1.58 versus 1.42), records more shots on target (4.44 vs 3.73) and scores on average 0.63 goals in the second half, while NAC concedes on average 1.13 goals after the break, which increases the probability of maintaining or extending the lead. Therefore the most likely scenario is Utrecht leading at half-time and the home win (1/1); cautiously I allow for a smaller probability of a draw after the break (1/X), since seasonally Utrecht led at half-time in only 19% of matches.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Utrecht | NAC Breda | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 29% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Utrecht is 350% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / match - Utrecht · 0.4 pts / match - NAC Breda
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Utrecht is 63% better for: goals scored per match.
1.58 goals / match - Utrecht · 0.97 goals / match - NAC Breda
Utrecht is 30% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.32 goals / match - Utrecht · 1.71 goals / match - NAC Breda
Utrecht scores in 81% of matches (25 of 31 matches), while NAC Breda keeps a clean sheet in 16% (5 of 31 matches).
NAC Breda scores in 58% of matches (18 of 31 matches), while Utrecht keeps a clean sheet in 23% (7 of 31 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Utrecht
Over / Under - NAC Breda
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Utrecht is 76% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.58 pts / match - Utrecht · 0.9 pts / match - NAC Breda
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Utrecht - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 45% of matches and wins 39%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
NAC Breda - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 19% of matches and wins 16%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 100% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -7 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (11 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Utrecht
NAC Breda
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Eredivisie).
Teams vs league
| Utrecht | Liga | NAC Breda | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.90 | 3.18 | ▼ 2.68 |
| Both teams scored | • 61% | 62% | ▼ 48% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 52% | 62% | ▼ 52% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 23% | 20% | ▼ 16% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 84% | 81% | ▼ 74% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 71% | 84% | ▼ 74% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Utrecht 0 - 1 - 0 NAC Breda. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Utrecht vs NAC Breda?
The Eredivisie match finished Utrecht 2:0 NAC Breda. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Utrecht vs NAC Breda?
Utrecht score 1.58 goals per game on average and NAC Breda 0.97. The Eredivisie average is 3.18 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 62% of games. Both teams score in 61% of Utrecht's matches and 48% of NAC Breda's.
What form are Utrecht and NAC Breda in?
Over the last 5 games Utrecht have a 3-0-2 record (1.80 points per game) and NAC Breda 0-2-3 (0.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Utrecht vs NAC Breda?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.