Vado vs Atalanta II: match statistics

Atalanta II have shown more consistent form in their last five matches: they have collected 6 points compared to Vado’s 4, suffering only one defeat versus three for the hosts. The visitors have conceded just 5 goals during this period, averaging 1.0 per match, while Vado have allowed 12, or 2.4 per game. Atalanta II have also scored one more goal (6 to 5), with their run including three draws, indicating an ability to control closely contested matches. Vado have won just 1 of their last 5 games and are clearly struggling defensively, so the more solid visitors deserve greater consideration. A draw remains a realistic outcome given Atalanta II’s three draws in five matches, but the advantage in goals conceded points towards outcome 2.

The signals from the last five matches are mixed: both teams recorded BTTS in 60% of their games, namely 3 out of 5 cases. However, Vado scored just 1.0 goal on average, with an xG of only 0.75, indicating limited offensive potential. Atalanta II conceded an average of 1.0 goal per match and allowed opponents an xG of 1.32, so it will not be easy for the hosts to find the net. The visitors should create chances, as Vado conceded 12 goals in five matches—an average of 2.4—with an xG against of 1.93. However, the greater risk lies in the hosts failing to score, so BTTS - No is slightly preferred.

Vado conceded an average of 2.4 goals in their last five matches, while Atalanta II scored 1.2 goals per game over the same period. The difference in chance quality is particularly significant: the visitors created an average of 1.44 xG, whereas the hosts allowed their opponents 1.93 xG. Atalanta II conceded only 5 goals in their last 5 matches, but despite their weaker chance creation of 0.75 xG, Vado scored 5 goals during this period, making at least one goal for the hosts a realistic outcome. Vado’s matches went Over 2.5 goals in 60% of their last five appearances, but Atalanta II’s corresponding rate is only 20%, which is why Over 1.5 goals is the safer and strongest option.

Atalanta II have shown clearly better first-half form: in their last five matches, they were leading at the break in 40% of games, whereas Vado did so on none of the occasions, and the home side were trailing at half-time in 50% of their matches. Vado conceded an average of 1.75 goals before the break, compared with just 0.40 goals conceded by Atalanta II, significantly increasing the likelihood of an early lead for the visitors. After the interval, the hosts scored only 0.25 goals per match and conceded 1.25, while the visitors averaged 0.60 goals scored and conceded the same number. The overall record across the last five matches also favours the away side: Vado suffered defeats in 60% of their games and conceded an average of 2.4 goals, while Atalanta II lost only 20% of their matches, conceding an average of 1.0 goal. The most likely outcome therefore remains an HT/FT scenario in which Atalanta II take the lead before half-time and maintain it until the final whistle.