Vado vs Grosseto: match statistics

Grosseto are the favourites: they have won 3 of their 5 away matches and have not lost any, while Vado have won 2 of their 5 home games. The visitors average 2.6 goals away from home with an xG of 1.95, whereas the hosts score an average of 1 goal at home with an xG of 1.33. The difference in chance creation is also reflected in shots on target: Grosseto average 5.8 per away match, compared with Vado’s 3.8 at home. However, Vado are unbeaten in their last 5 matches, conceding just 3 goals, while Grosseto have conceded 9 over the same period. This disparity in recent defensive form boosts the hosts’ chances of picking up points, but Grosseto’s finishing and away record make them the stronger pick.

Both teams have solid attacking potential: Vado score an average of 1.67 goals, while Grosseto average 2.60 goals per match. The case for BTTS - Yes is also supported by xG figures of 1.68 and 1.95, respectively, and the fact that Vado have scored in every match so far. In their last 5 matches, Grosseto conceded an average of 1.8 goals, increasing the hosts’ chances of scoring, although Vado allowed their opponents just 0.6 goals per match. That defensive record is a significant argument against BTTS, but during this period Vado allowed chances worth an average xG of 2.06, while Grosseto scored 2.8 goals per match. With BTTS having occurred in 50% of Vado’s matches and 60% of Grosseto’s so far, a scenario in which both teams score is marginally more likely.

The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals: this threshold was reached in 100% of Vado’s matches and 80% of Grosseto’s. The hosts average 1.67 goals scored, while the visitors average 2.60; their average xG figures, 1.68 and 1.95 respectively, also point to scoring potential. In their last five matches, Grosseto averaged 2.8 goals scored, although they conceded 1.8, further supporting a game with at least two goals. The 2.5-goal line is less certain, as it was reached in 80% of the visitors’ matches but only 33% of the hosts’ games. Therefore, with a projected total of 3.20 goals, Over 1.5 goals is better supported by the data than the higher lines.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Vado win, although this outcome has only a narrow edge over the alternatives. The hosts were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, conceding an average of just 0.2 goals in the first half and keeping a clean sheet in 4 of those games. This is an important counterweight to Grosseto, who scored an average of 1.6 goals before half-time over the same period and led at the break in 3 of 5 matches. After the interval, Vado won the second half in 3 of their last 5 games, and across the full available sample did so in 67% of matches, compared with 20% for Grosseto. The visitors averaged 2.8 goals across their last 5 matches, compared with 1.4 for the hosts, so a draw at half-time followed by a Grosseto win also remains a realistic possibility in the HT/FT market.