Valenciennes vs Aubagne: match statistics
Valenciennes are showing solid form in their last five matches with a record of 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, averaging 2 points per game. The hosts have a balanced home record with 50% wins and a positive goal difference (+2), as well as a higher average xG (1.73 vs 1.13), indicating an offensive advantage. Aubagne are in terrible form, losing all of their last five matches and conceding as many as 12 goals in that period, without securing a single point. The visitors have a weaker away record (42% wins, 50% losses) and a negative goal difference (-1), and their average away xG (1.22) is significantly lower than the hosts' average xG Against (1.13). Considering Valenciennes' advantage in ball possession (54% vs 47%), better home efficiency, and Aubagne's catastrophic losing streak, the hosts are the favorites for this match.
Valenciennes vs Aubagne: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Valenciennes played Aubagne in National (France). The match was played on 27 March 2026. Final score: 0:0.
Current form
Valenciennes: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Aubagne: 0-0-5, 0.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Valenciennes scores 1.21 and concedes 1.33 goals per match. Aubagne scores 1.21 and concedes 1.46. League average: 2.40 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Valenciennes 63%, Aubagne 63%. Over 2.5: Valenciennes 54%, Aubagne 50%. League level: BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 48%.
xG, shots and style
Valenciennes has higher xG: 1.44 vs 1.24. Valenciennes: 11.8 shots per match, Aubagne: 9.7.
Match halves
Valenciennes: half-time lead 21%, second-half goals 0.79. Aubagne: half-time lead 13%, second-half goals 0.83.
Goals by minute
Valenciennes: 76-90+ (12 goals). Aubagne: 76-90+ (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
National: 2.40 goals per match, BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 48%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Valenciennes are showing solid form in their last five matches with a record of 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, averaging 2 points per game. The hosts have a balanced home record with 50% wins and a positive goal difference (+2), as well as a higher average xG (1.73 vs 1.13), indicating an offensive advantage. Aubagne are in terrible form, losing all of their last five matches and conceding as many as 12 goals in that period, without securing a single point. The visitors have a weaker away record (42% wins, 50% losses) and a negative goal difference (-1), and their average away xG (1.22) is significantly lower than the hosts' average xG Against (1.13). Considering Valenciennes' advantage in ball possession (54% vs 47%), better home efficiency, and Aubagne's catastrophic losing streak, the hosts are the favorites for this match.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Valenciennes have a very high seasonal BTTS rate (83%) and 0% of matches with over 2.5 goals without BTTS, indicating frequent scenarios with goals from both sides. The hosts rarely keep a clean sheet (CS 8%) and concede an average of 1.5 goals with an xGA of 1.34, so even Aubagne's recently weaker offense has a real chance to score. On the other hand, Aubagne are defensively vulnerable (GA 35, average 1.42 conceded, xGA 1.41), and in their last 5 matches they concede as many as 2.4 goals per game, which strongly boosts the probability of a Valenciennes goal. Although Aubagne have scored only 0.6 goals in their last 5 matches, their seasonal 1.33 goals, xG 1.22, and 4.33 shots on target per game suggest breakthrough potential. Overall, the goal and defensive data of both sides give a slightly positive signal towards BTTS - Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
A goal model based on xG and current form indicates approximately 2.77 total goals (Valenciennes 1.66, Aubagne 1.11). Valenciennes has a high xG for (1.26) and a very low clean sheet rate (8%), supporting a scenario with at least 2 goals, with their BTTS season rate as high as 83%. Aubagne in their last 5 matches has been conceding an average of 2.4 goals (12 GA), amidst a losing streak, which increases the hosts' goal potential. Meanwhile, the season over 3.5 rates are moderate (Valenciennes 25%, Aubagne 17%), so the most probable outcome is a total in the 2-3 goal range. Furthermore, both teams have an 83% rate of matches with over 1.5 goals this season, reinforcing Over 1.5 as the strongest pick.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The signal in favor of Valenciennes is strengthened by a clear disparity in form from the last 5 matches: the hosts average 2.0 PPG and have a 60% win rate, while Aubagne have 0.0 PPG and a 100% loss record, along with a high goal deficit (0.6 scored vs 2.4 conceded per match). In a live context, it is also crucial that Aubagne have been trailing at half-time in 100% of their last 5 matches and have not scored any goals in the first halves (0.0). Although seasonally Valenciennes often trail at the break (58%) and have a low HT average (0.25 goals scored), their current form shifts the probability towards the hosts taking the lead already in the first half. Overall, the underlying quality metrics are similar (xG ~1.26 vs 1.22), but the advantage in efficiency and game organization recently lies with Valenciennes. Therefore, the most likely HT/FT scenario is Valenciennes leading at half-time and seeing out the victory until the end (1/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Valenciennes | Aubagne | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 42% | 41% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Valenciennes is 10% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.33 goals / match - Valenciennes · 1.46 goals / match - Aubagne
Valenciennes scores in 75% of matches (18 of 24 matches), while Aubagne keeps a clean sheet in 17% (4 of 24 matches).
Aubagne scores in 75% of matches (18 of 24 matches), while Valenciennes keeps a clean sheet in 21% (5 of 24 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Valenciennes
Over / Under - Aubagne
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Valenciennes is 22% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.96 pts / match - Valenciennes · 0.79 pts / match - Aubagne
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Valenciennes - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 21% of matches and wins 38%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Aubagne - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 13% of matches and wins 29%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 0% | 20% |
| No goal | 100% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -5 | -4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (12 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +7 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Valenciennes
Aubagne
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (National).
Teams vs league
| Valenciennes | Liga | Aubagne | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.54 | 2.40 | ▲ 2.67 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 63% | 54% | ▲ 63% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 54% | 48% | ▲ 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 21% | 28% | ▼ 17% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 75% | 71% | ▲ 75% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 75% | 72% | ▲ 79% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Valenciennes 0 - 1 - 0 Aubagne. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Valenciennes vs Aubagne?
The National match finished Valenciennes 0:0 Aubagne. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Valenciennes vs Aubagne?
Valenciennes score 1.21 goals per game on average and Aubagne 1.21. The National average is 2.40 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 48% of games. Both teams score in 63% of Valenciennes's matches and 63% of Aubagne's.
What form are Valenciennes and Aubagne in?
Over the last 5 games Valenciennes have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Aubagne 0-0-5 (0.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Valenciennes vs Aubagne?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.