Valenciennes vs Caen: match statistics
Statistical analysis points to a draw as the most likely outcome. Valenciennes presents weak home form with 55% losses at home, although they average 1.27 goals per match with an xG of 1.74, suggesting unfulfilled potential. Caen, on the other hand, is characterized by a very high percentage of away draws (60%), keeping no clean sheets but scoring regularly (0% FTS). Both teams display similar form in the last 5 matches (0.8 vs 1.0 PPG) and have comparable xG indicators. Valenciennes' high average of shots on target (5.91) and Caen's conversion rate (15%) may balance each other out. Given Caen's tendency to draw on the road and the hosts' instability, I expect the points to be shared.
Valenciennes vs Caen: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Valenciennes played Caen in National (France). The match was played on 28 February 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Valenciennes: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match. Caen: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Valenciennes scores 1.05 and concedes 1.33 goals per match. Caen scores 1.14 and concedes 1.10. League average: 2.35 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Valenciennes 57%, Caen 57%. Over 2.5: Valenciennes 48%, Caen 38%. League level: BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 47%.
xG, shots and style
Valenciennes has higher xG: 1.46 vs 1.38. Valenciennes: 11.9 shots per match, Caen: 11.1.
Match halves
Valenciennes: half-time lead 19%, second-half goals 0.71. Caen: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.62.
Goals by minute
Valenciennes: 76-90+ (10 goals). Caen: 31-45+ (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
National: 2.35 goals per match, BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 47%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 0.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis points to a draw as the most likely outcome. Valenciennes presents weak home form with 55% losses at home, although they average 1.27 goals per match with an xG of 1.74, suggesting unfulfilled potential. Caen, on the other hand, is characterized by a very high percentage of away draws (60%), keeping no clean sheets but scoring regularly (0% FTS). Both teams display similar form in the last 5 matches (0.8 vs 1.0 PPG) and have comparable xG indicators. Valenciennes' high average of shots on target (5.91) and Caen's conversion rate (15%) may balance each other out. Given Caen's tendency to draw on the road and the hosts' instability, I expect the points to be shared.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Valenciennes | Caen | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 42% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Caen is 25% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - Valenciennes · 1 pts / match - Caen
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Caen is 9% better for: goals scored per match.
1.05 goals / match - Valenciennes · 1.14 goals / match - Caen
Caen is 21% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.33 goals / match - Valenciennes · 1.1 goals / match - Caen
Valenciennes scores in 71% of matches (15 of 21 matches), while Caen keeps a clean sheet in 38% (8 of 21 matches).
Caen scores in 76% of matches (16 of 21 matches), while Valenciennes keeps a clean sheet in 24% (5 of 21 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Valenciennes
Over / Under - Caen
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Caen is 64% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.9 pts / match - Valenciennes · 1.48 pts / match - Caen
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Valenciennes - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 19% of matches and wins 29%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Caen - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 24%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -4 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +6 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Valenciennes
Caen
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (National).
Teams vs league
| Valenciennes | Liga | Caen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.38 | 2.35 | ▼ 2.24 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 57% | 52% | ▲ 57% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 48% | 47% | ▼ 38% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 24% | 30% | ▲ 38% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 76% | 69% | ▼ 67% |
| Goal after half-time | • 71% | 71% | ▼ 67% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Valenciennes 0 - 1 - 0 Caen. Average goals 0.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Valenciennes vs Caen?
The National match finished Valenciennes 2:1 Caen. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Valenciennes vs Caen?
Valenciennes score 1.05 goals per game on average and Caen 1.14. The National average is 2.35 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 47% of games. Both teams score in 57% of Valenciennes's matches and 57% of Caen's.
What form are Valenciennes and Caen in?
Over the last 5 games Valenciennes have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Caen 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Valenciennes vs Caen?
The statistical background for Valenciennes vs Caen — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.