Vålerenga vs Molde: match statistics

Molde sit 4th, while Vålerenga are only 11th, and the visitors have also been clearly more effective in their recent run: they have scored 22 goals in their last 5 matches compared with the hosts’ 16. Molde have won 3 of their last 5 games, averaging 4.4 goals per match and conceding just 9; Vålerenga, meanwhile, have lost twice during the same period and allowed 14 opposition goals. The hosts are nevertheless dangerous at home, where they average 1.78 goals, register 16.44 shots per match and post an xG of 1.78. Vålerenga’s main issue is their defence: at home, they concede an average of 1.56 goals, have kept a clean sheet in only 11% of matches, while Molde create chances worth an average of 1.77 xG away from home. Molde’s away form is not perfect, as they have won only 25% of their matches on the road and lost 50%, but their superior current attacking form and chance quality give the visitors a slight edge.

The signal for both teams to score is very strong, as Vålerenga’s seasonal BTTS rate stands at 67% and Molde’s as high as 75%, compared with the league average of 56%. In their last five matches, both teams recorded BTTS in 80% of games, with Vålerenga conceding an average of 2.8 goals, while Molde scored as many as 4.4 goals per match. The hosts are also highly effective at home, averaging 2.33 goals, while Molde averages 6.0 shots on target and has an xG of 1.77. Molde’s defence keeps a clean sheet in only 13% of matches, while Vålerenga fail to score in just 11%, significantly reducing the likelihood of a BTTS - No scenario, meaning that at least one team fails to score. Additionally, the average xG over the last five matches is 1.95 for Vålerenga and 2.29 for Molde, making goals for both sides the most likely outcome.

The match profile clearly favors goals: Vålerenga score an average of 2.33 goals at home, while Molde concede as many as 1.88 goals away from home. Molde also create plenty of chances, with an average xG of 1.77 and 6.00 shots on target per match, while the hosts allow opponents an xG of 1.24. In their last five matches, both teams recorded a full set of games with at least three goals, while their average total goal tallies stand at 3.2 and 4.4, respectively. Additionally, at least two goals were scored in 78% of Vålerenga’s matches and 88% of Molde’s, which significantly reduces the likelihood of a tight match. The strongest selection is Over 1.5 goals, as even under a more conservative projection of 3.50 expected goals, the two-goal threshold has a very high probability of being exceeded.

Vålerenga won 67% of their home matches and averaged 2.33 goals scored there, while Molde lost 50% of their away fixtures and conceded an average of 1.88 goals per game. The hosts led at the break in 5 of their 9 home matches (56%), while Molde went into half-time behind in as many as 38% of their away games. Vålerenga’s defence has looked solid before the break, with the team conceding an average of just 0.44 goals, compared with the 1.00 goal Molde conceded on average in the first halves of away matches. After the interval, the hosts score an average of 1.33 goals, while the visitors manage only 0.63, strengthening the scenario of Vålerenga maintaining or extending their lead. However, Molde have a high average xG of 1.77 and scored an average of 4.4 goals across their last five matches, so outcomes involving a late away win retain a significant share of the probability.