Valmiera / BSS vs Super Nova II: match statistics

Valmiera / BSS sit 2nd and have won 16 of their 21 matches this season, while ninth-placed Super Nova II have recorded 6 wins. The hosts have won 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring 16 goals in that run; the visitors have failed to win any of their last 5 and have scored just 5 goals. At home, Valmiera average 2.78 goals and 8.78 shots on target per match, while Super Nova II average 1.45 goals and 4.6 shots on target away from home. Chance quality also favours the hosts: their home xG is 1.98, compared with the visitors’ away xG of 1.19, while Super Nova II concede chances worth an average xG of 1.91 on the road. However, Valmiera have conceded 9 goals in their last 5 matches, so despite their clear advantage, a win to nil is not a certainty.

The possibility of both teams scoring is supported by their season-to-date rates of matches in which both teams found the net: 82% for Super Nova II and 50% for Valmiera. In their last 5 matches, both teams scored in 100% of Valmiera’s games and 80% of Super Nova II’s, while each side conceded an average of 1.8 goals over that period. The visitors have not failed to score in any match this season, while Valmiera have recently averaged 3.2 goals per game against an opposition defence that has allowed chances worth 2.00 xG. The main risk to BTTS - Yes is that Valmiera have failed to score in 40% of their matches; however, their recent attacking form and the visitors’ season average of 1.73 goals conceded per game point towards the hosts getting on the scoresheet. Despite this caveat, it is more likely that both teams will score.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals: this line has been exceeded in 70% of Valmiera’s matches and 100% of Super Nova II’s matches. The hosts averaged 1.2 goals per game this season, but raised that average to 3.2 across their last five fixtures, while the visitors conceded 1.8 goals per game over the same period. Super Nova II average 1.45 goals per match and have scored in every game so far, increasing the likelihood of both teams finding the net. Although recent results also point towards a higher-scoring game, Over 2.5 goals has landed in only 50% of the hosts’ matches and 45% of the visitors’ matches this season, making the 1.5 line the clearer choice.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is Valmiera leading at the break and going on to win: the hosts have been ahead at half-time in 40% of their matches so far, scoring an average of 0.8 goals before the break, while the visitors have conceded 0.9. Their recent form over the last five matches supports them holding on to that lead: Valmiera have won three and averaged 3.2 goals, while Super Nova II have not won any and averaged 1.0 goal. The hosts have also won the second half in four of their last five matches, scoring an average of 2.0 goals after the break, strengthening the case for a win after taking an early lead. Confidence in this prediction is tempered by the fact that the visitors have averaged 0.8 goals after half-time over the full season, so a draw at the break followed by a Valmiera win remains a significant alternative.