Valur vs ÍA: match statistics

ÍA come into this match in significantly better form: they have collected 11 points from their last 5 games, winning 3 and remaining unbeaten, while Valur have managed just 4 points. During this period, the visitors scored 13 goals and conceded only 5, whereas the hosts scored 7 and conceded as many as 14, clearly highlighting Valur’s defensive problems. Valur’s season home numbers are also alarming defensively, as they concede an average of 2.5 goals per match with opponents’ xG at 2.27. Valur should create chances, having averaged 16.5 shots and an xG of 1.92 at home, but ÍA currently offer a much better balance between attacking efficiency and defensive solidity. Although both teams are frequently involved in high-scoring matches, the visitors’ current run and their 6:8 advantage in season losses support an ÍA victory.

BTTS - Yes is supported by the fact that both teams record this outcome in 70% of their league matches, almost identical to the league average of 71%. Valur score an average of 1.6 goals, while ÍA average 1.8, with the visitors’ defence conceding as many as 2.4 goals per match and keeping a clean sheet in only 10% of their appearances. In their last five matches, Valur conceded 14 goals, or 2.8 per game, while ÍA scored 13 goals during this period, averaging 2.6 goals. Their attacking potential is confirmed by xG figures of 1.76 for Valur and 1.69 for ÍA, as well as averages of 4.8 and 5.6 shots on target per match, respectively. The risk for both sides is Valur’s weaker recent BTTS record of 40%, but ÍA’s attacking advantage over the hosts’ current defence clearly strengthens the scenario of both teams finding the net.

Valur score an average of 1.6 goals, while ÍA concede as many as 2.4 goals per away match, with the visitors’ defensive xG standing at 2.03. ÍA also possess significant attacking potential: they score an average of 1.8 goals and have netted 13 goals in their last five matches, while Valur have conceded 14 during the same period. At least 2 goals were scored in 90% of Valur’s matches and 80% of ÍA’s, while the league-wide average is a very high 3.95 goals. In addition, both teams rarely keep clean sheets, doing so in just 20% and 10% of their matches respectively, making Over 1.5 goals the strongest and most stable option.

ÍA have shown clearly superior recent form: over their last five matches, they averaged 2.2 points, won 60% of their games and suffered no defeats, while Valur averaged just 0.8 points and lost 60% of their matches. The visitors’ advantage is particularly evident before half-time: ÍA were leading at the break in 60% of their recent matches, scoring an average of 1.2 goals and conceding 0.4, whereas Valur were behind at half-time in 60% of their games, with an average of 0.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. The hosts have recently conceded an average of 2.8 goals per match, while ÍA have scored 2.6, reinforcing the scenario of the visitors maintaining their lead after the interval. The risk stems from the season-long data, as Valur were leading at half-time in 50% of their home matches; however, current form clearly shifts the assessment in ÍA’s favour. The strongest individual outcome therefore remains ÍA leading at half-time and winning the match, corresponding to the HT/FT selection 2/2.