Valur vs Stjarnan: match statistics
Valur vs Stjarnan: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Valur played Stjarnan in Úrvalsdeild (Iceland). The match was played on 4 August 2026. Venue: Origovöllurinn. Final score: 2:3.
Current form
Valur: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match. Stjarnan: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Valur scores 1.63 and concedes 2.00 goals per match. Stjarnan scores 1.81 and concedes 2.56. League average: 3.96 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Valur 69%, Stjarnan 88%. Over 2.5: Valur 69%, Stjarnan 88%. League level: BTTS 72%, Over 2.5 71%.
xG, shots and style
Stjarnan has higher xG: 1.82 vs 1.67. Valur: 14.0 shots per match, Stjarnan: 15.2.
Match halves
Valur: half-time lead 31%, second-half goals 0.69. Stjarnan: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.81.
Goals by minute
Valur: 0-15 (6 goals). Stjarnan: 0-15 (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Úrvalsdeild: 3.96 goals per match, BTTS 72%, Over 2.5 71%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 4 previous H2H matches were available: 2-0-2. Average goals 4.75, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back a Valur win (1). At home Valur average 1.75 goals per match with xG 1.80 and a season goal record of 26 scored and 32 conceded, while Stjarnan on the road averages 1.63 goals (xG 1.63) and concedes 2.63 goals per match, with a season record of 29–41. Both teams show poor recent form (5 goals and an average of 0.8 points in the last 5 matches), but the visitors have conceded 14 goals in those five fixtures versus Valur’s 8 conceded, indicating larger defensive issues for Stjarnan. Situational metrics are similar (on-target shots 5.38 vs 5.5 and total shots 14.88 vs 14.5), but Valur have a slightly higher conversion rate (12% vs 11%) and haven’t been kept off the scoresheet at home (0% scoreless matches), while Stjarnan have no away clean sheets (0%); therefore I assign 60% probability to the home side.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The strongest signal is the seasonal BTTS indicator: Valur 88% and Stjarnan 88%, which at the season level already points to a high probability of both teams scoring. Both teams also have 0% clean sheets this season (seasonCSPercentage 0.0) and the goal stats speak for themselves: Valur averages 2.0 goals scored and concedes 2.5, while Stjarnan scores 1.63 and concedes 2.63. xG confirms the open nature of these matches — Valur xG_for 2.01 and xG_against 1.94, Stjarnan xG_for 1.63 and xG_against 1.90 — both sides create and allow chances. In the last 5 matches there is some variability (Valur BTTS 40%, Stjarnan 60%), but Stjarnan conceded 14 goals in those 5 games (avg. 2.8), and the league BTTS is 72% with an average of 3.97 goals per match; therefore I assign 86% to BTTS - Yes and 14% to No.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Based on xG: Valur’s attacking xG averages 2.01 while xG against Stjarnan is 1.90, yielding about 1.96 expected goals for Valur; Stjarnan has xG 1.63 versus xG against Valur 1.94, giving about 1.78 goals, totaling 3.74. Seasonally Valur scores 2.0 and concedes 2.5, Stjarnan scores 1.63 and concedes 2.63; both teams have Over 2.5 in 88% of matches and BTTS 88%, which strongly favors more goals. In the last 5 matches Valur averages 1.0 scored and 1.6 conceded, while Stjarnan averages 1.0 scored and 2.8 conceded — Stjarnan conceded 14 goals in the last 5 fixtures, increasing the likelihood of goals. Given the league goals average of 3.97 and expected xG of 3.74, the strongest signal from the data is to play Over 2.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Valur led at the break in 38% of matches, while Stjarnan did so in only 13%; Valur’s first-half goal average is 1.25 versus 0.75 for the visitors, indicating a higher probability for the home side to lead at the break. However, Valur concedes an average of 1.5 goals in the second half and has a second-half goal difference of -6, whereas Stjarnan concedes 1.0 and has a difference of -1, so the visitors more frequently stage a turnaround after the interval. This is supported by Stjarnan scoring 4 goals in minutes 46–60 while Valur conceded 6 in that period, making an equalizer early in the second half likely. Additionally, both teams score in 88% of their matches and the goals-per-game averages are 4.5 for Valur and 4.25 for Stjarnan, so the game should be high-scoring and often lead to a turnaround after half-time. For these reasons, the most probable scenario from the data is Valur leading at half-time and a draw at full-time (1/X).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Valur | Stjarnan | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 41% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Stjarnan is 11% better for: goals scored per match.
1.63 goals / match - Valur · 1.81 goals / match - Stjarnan
Valur is 28% better for: goals conceded per match.
2 goals / match - Valur · 2.56 goals / match - Stjarnan
Valur scores in 81% of matches (13 of 16 matches), while Stjarnan keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 16 matches).
Stjarnan scores in 88% of matches (14 of 16 matches), while Valur keeps a clean sheet in 13% (2 of 16 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Valur
Over / Under — Stjarnan
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Valur is 24% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.31 pts / match - Valur · 1.06 pts / match - Stjarnan
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Valur - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 31% of matches and wins 38%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Stjarnan - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 25%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 2.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 100% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -4 | -4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (6 goli). Concedes most in 31-45 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (6 goli). Concedes most in 46-60 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Valur
Stjarnan
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Úrvalsdeild).
Teams vs league
| Valur | Liga | Stjarnan | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 3.63 | 3.96 | ▲ 4.38 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 69% | 72% | ▲ 88% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 69% | 71% | ▲ 88% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 13% | 16% | ▼ 0% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 88% | 81% | ▲ 94% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 81% | 87% | • 88% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (4): Valur 2 - 0 - 2 Stjarnan. Average goals 4.75, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Valur vs Stjarnan?
The Úrvalsdeild match finished Valur 2:3 Stjarnan. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Valur and Stjarnan?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches Valur won 2, Stjarnan won 2 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 4.75 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Valur vs Stjarnan?
Valur score 1.63 goals per game on average and Stjarnan 1.81. The Úrvalsdeild average is 3.96 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 71% of games. Both teams score in 69% of Valur's matches and 88% of Stjarnan's.
What form are Valur and Stjarnan in?
Over the last 5 games Valur have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Stjarnan 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Valur vs Stjarnan?
The statistical background for Valur vs Stjarnan — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.