Vancouver FC vs Supra du Québec: match statistics

Vancouver FC have a clearly stronger home record: they win 50% of such matches, score an average of 1.40 goals and concede just 0.90, while Supra du Québec concede as many as 2.00 goals per away match. The hosts create slightly better-quality chances at home, as reflected by an xG of 1.48 compared with the visitors’ 1.52 xG conceded, with the latter failing to keep a clean sheet in any away match. Supra are nevertheless dangerous in attack, averaging 1.78 goals away from home, registering 14.22 shots and 5.56 shots on target per game, while scoring in 89% of their matches. The recent form of both teams is unconvincing, but Vancouver have scored just 2 goals in their last five matches, so home advantage does not make the hosts clear favourites. A narrow Vancouver win remains the most likely outcome, although the visitors’ attacking potential also increases the chances of a draw or a goal from Supra.

Long-term data clearly support goals at both ends: BTTS occurred in 70% of Vancouver FC matches and as many as 89% of Supra du Québec fixtures, compared with the league average of 63%. The visitors have kept no clean sheets, conceding an average of 2.0 goals per match, giving the hosts a realistic chance of finding the net. Supra du Québec score an average of 1.78 goals and register 5.56 shots on target per game, while Vancouver FC concede an average of 1.5 goals. The main risk to BTTS - Yes is Vancouver’s current form: they have scored just 2 goals in their last 5 matches, recorded an xG of 0.74, and produced BTTS in only 20% of fixtures. Despite this downturn, the hosts have posted a seasonal xG of 1.57, while the visitors’ weak defence and their 89% BTTS rate provide slight support for a Goal/Goal scenario.

The strongest signal points to Over 1.5 goals, as Vancouver’s matches have surpassed this line in 70% of cases, while Supra’s have done so in as many as 89%. Supra averages 1.78 goals per match, whereas Vancouver concedes 1.50, and the visitors also register more shots on target: 5.56 compared with 4.30. The hosts have recently been weaker offensively, averaging just 0.4 goals and an xG of 0.74 across their last five matches, but Supra have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of them and concede an average of 2.00 goals. A total projection of 2.70 goals, combined with the fact that both teams regularly concede, clearly supports at least two goals, although Vancouver’s form limits confidence in Over 2.5.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Supra du Québec victory at the final whistle, as Vancouver scores an average of just 0.2 goals before the break, with the same figure recorded across their last five matches. The hosts have been level at half-time in 60% of their games, while the visitors have gone into the break all square in as many as 50% of their last five appearances. Supra have been more effective over the season as a whole, averaging 1.78 goals per match compared with Vancouver’s 1.10. Despite a similar number of shots on target—5.56 versus 4.30—Supra convert 13% of their attempts, while the hosts convert only 7%. Both teams concede frequently after the break, but Vancouver allow opponents an average of 1.0 goal, which, combined with Supra’s average of 1.0 goal scored in the second half, supports a scenario in which the match is ultimately decided in the visitors’ favour.