Vaprus vs Nõmme Kalju: match statistics
Vaprus vs Nõmme Kalju: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Vaprus played Nõmme Kalju in Meistriliiga (Estonia). The match was played on 13 October 2026. Venue: Pärnu Rannastaadion. Final score: 2:2.
Current form
Vaprus: 0-1-4, 0.20 points/match. Nõmme Kalju: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Vaprus scores 1.33 and concedes 2.00 goals per match. Nõmme Kalju scores 1.73 and concedes 0.93. League average: 3.12 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Vaprus 67%, Nõmme Kalju 53%. Over 2.5: Vaprus 67%, Nõmme Kalju 47%. League level: BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 65%.
xG, shots and style
Nõmme Kalju has higher xG: 1.86 vs 1.25. Vaprus: 9.6 shots per match, Nõmme Kalju: 15.6.
Match halves
Vaprus: half-time lead 23%, second-half goals 0.70. Nõmme Kalju: half-time lead 50%, second-half goals 0.77.
Goals by minute
Vaprus: 46-60 (9 goals). Nõmme Kalju: 16-30 (11 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Meistriliiga: 3.12 goals per match, BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 65%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 7 previous H2H matches were available: 3-1-3. Average goals 3.14, BTTS 71%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Nõmme Kalju are 4th in the table and have won 15 of their 29 matches, while seventh-placed Vaprus have recorded 9 wins in 29 games. The last five rounds also point to the visitors: they have scored 9 goals and won twice, whereas the hosts have scored 5 and suffered 4 defeats. Away from home, Kalju create chances worth an average xG of 1.73 and register 4.5 shots on target per match, compared with Vaprus’ home xG of 1.22 and 3.86 shots on target. The defensive gap is also significant: the visitors concede an average of 0.71 goals away from home and keep a clean sheet in 50% of matches, while the hosts concede 1.64 goals at home and allow opponents an xG of 1.91. Vaprus average 1.64 goals scored at home, so they can pose a threat, but Kalju’s 57% away-win rate makes the visitors the clear favourites.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Vaprus average 2.13 goals at home and have seen both teams score in 73% of their matches, which points to a home goal. Nõmme Kalju keep a clean sheet in 50% of matches, but have conceded an average of 1.6 goals across their last five, so their season-long defensive record is no guarantee. The visitors have an xG of 1.73, while Vaprus have conceded an average of 2.4 goals in their last five matches, strongly supporting the chances of an away goal. Although Nõmme Kalju’s season-long rate of both-teams-to-score matches is only 36%, it has risen to 80% over their last five fixtures. The combination of the home side’s attack and both teams’ recent defensive struggles gives the edge to BTTS - Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Vaprus average 2.13 goals at home, but Nõmme Kalju concede just 0.71 away, so the hosts’ scoring potential should be assessed cautiously. The visitors average 1.73 xG, while Vaprus have conceded 2.4 goals per game over their last five matches, increasing the likelihood of Nõmme Kalju finding the net. The teams’ last five matches have averaged 3.4 goals, with at least three goals scored in 60% and 80% of those matches, respectively. Even so, the season-long rate of matches with at least three goals is 60% for Vaprus and just 36% for the visitors, making the 2.5 line less certain. The strongest signal is for Over 1.5 goals: this threshold has been cleared in 87% of Vaprus’ home matches and 64% of Nõmme Kalju’s away matches.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest signal in favour of Nõmme Kalju leading at the break is their recent form: the visitors led at half-time in 3 of their last 5 matches, compared with just 1 of 5 for Vaprus. Over that period, Kalju averaged 1.2 goals before the break, while Vaprus managed only 0.2. Their ability to hold on to a lead is also supported by their overall form: Vaprus have lost 4 of their last 5 matches and conceded an average of 2.4 goals, while Kalju averaged 1.8 goals scored. The hosts should not be ruled out, however, as they average 2.13 goals per match over the season, compared with 1.43 for the visitors. Despite this caveat, Kalju’s advantage in recent results and their effectiveness before the break make an away lead both at half-time and at full-time the most likely scenario in the HT/FT market.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Vaprus | Nõmme Kalju | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 40% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Nõmme Kalju is 500% better for: last-5 form.
0.2 pts / match - Vaprus · 1.2 pts / match - Nõmme Kalju
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Nõmme Kalju is 30% better for: goals scored per match.
1.33 goals / match - Vaprus · 1.73 goals / match - Nõmme Kalju
Nõmme Kalju is 115% better for: goals conceded per match.
2 goals / match - Vaprus · 0.93 goals / match - Nõmme Kalju
Vaprus scores in 80% of matches (24 of 30 matches), while Nõmme Kalju keeps a clean sheet in 33% (10 of 30 matches).
Nõmme Kalju scores in 83% of matches (25 of 30 matches), while Vaprus keeps a clean sheet in 20% (6 of 30 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Vaprus
Over / Under - Nõmme Kalju
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Nõmme Kalju is 62% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.13 pts / match - Vaprus · 1.83 pts / match - Nõmme Kalju
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Vaprus - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 23% of matches and wins 30%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Nõmme Kalju - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 50% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -4 | -4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (9 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (11 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Vaprus
Nõmme Kalju
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Meistriliiga).
Teams vs league
| Vaprus | Liga | Nõmme Kalju | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.33 | 3.12 | ▼ 2.67 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 67% | 57% | ▼ 53% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 67% | 65% | ▼ 47% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 20% | 23% | ▲ 33% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 73% | 76% | ▼ 70% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 90% | 88% | ▼ 83% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (7): Vaprus 3 - 1 - 3 Nõmme Kalju. Average goals 3.14, both teams scored in 71% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Vaprus vs Nõmme Kalju?
The Meistriliiga match finished Vaprus 2:2 Nõmme Kalju. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Vaprus and Nõmme Kalju?
In the last 7 head-to-head matches Vaprus won 3, Nõmme Kalju won 3 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 3.14 goals, with both teams scoring in 71% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Vaprus vs Nõmme Kalju?
Vaprus score 1.33 goals per game on average and Nõmme Kalju 1.73. The Meistriliiga average is 3.12 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 65% of games. Both teams score in 67% of Vaprus's matches and 53% of Nõmme Kalju's.
What form are Vaprus and Nõmme Kalju in?
Over the last 5 games Vaprus have a 0-1-4 record (0.20 points per game) and Nõmme Kalju 2-0-3 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Vaprus vs Nõmme Kalju?
The statistical background for Vaprus vs Nõmme Kalju — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.