Vaprus vs Nõmme United: match statistics
Vaprus vs Nõmme United: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Vaprus played Nõmme United in Meistriliiga (Estonia). The match was played on 5 September 2026. Venue: Pärnu Rannastaadion. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Vaprus: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match. Nõmme United: 0-0-5, 0.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Vaprus scores 1.38 and concedes 1.92 goals per match. Nõmme United scores 1.68 and concedes 2.40. League average: 3.14 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Vaprus 71%, Nõmme United 84%. Over 2.5: Vaprus 67%, Nõmme United 92%. League level: BTTS 60%, Over 2.5 66%.
xG, shots and style
Nõmme United has higher xG: 1.47 vs 1.13. Vaprus: 8.5 shots per match, Nõmme United: 11.5.
Match halves
Vaprus: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.67. Nõmme United: half-time lead 20%, second-half goals 1.04.
Goals by minute
Vaprus: 16-30 (8 goals). Nõmme United: 76-90+ (11 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Meistriliiga: 3.14 goals per match, BTTS 60%, Over 2.5 66%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-2. Average goals 6.50, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Vaprus have a clear home advantage: they win 42% of their matches at home, while Nõmme United lose as many as 58% of their away fixtures. The hosts average 1.67 goals scored at home, whereas the visitors concede as many as 2.75 goals per match away from home and have kept no clean sheets. The quality of chances also favors Vaprus, as Nõmme United allow an average of 2.18 xG away from home, compared with the 1.17 xG created by the hosts on their own ground. Both teams have been inconsistent recently, but Vaprus have scored 10 goals in their previous five matches, while Nõmme United have managed just 4 and suffered 4 defeats. Vaprus’s defense is not entirely reliable either, conceding an average of 1.67 goals at home, so a scoring scenario for the visitors remains plausible, although a home win is the more likely outcome.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Seasonal BTTS figures are exceptionally high: Vaprus record BTTS in 85% of their matches, while Nõmme United do so in 83%, well above the league average of 59%. Neither team has kept a single clean sheet, with the hosts conceding an average of 2.08 goals and the visitors as many as 2.75. Vaprus score an average of 2.00 goals, while their xG of 1.65 aligns well with Nõmme United’s extremely weak defence, which allows an average xG of 2.18. The visitors have been weaker in their last five matches, scoring just 0.8 goals per game and recording BTTS in 40% of matches, while Vaprus have conceded 1.6 goals during this period and allowed opponents an xG of 2.23. The most likely scenario therefore remains a goal for both sides, although the visitors’ reduced current attacking efficiency limits confidence in the pick.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Vaprus score an average of 2.00 goals per match, while Nõmme United concede as many as 2.75, significantly strengthening the outlook for goals from the home side. Neither team has kept a clean sheet, while each has exceeded 1.5 goals in the total match score in at least 92% of their games this season. In their last five matches, Vaprus scored 10 goals and Nõmme United conceded 12, with the average xG against the visitors at a very high 2.79. An additional argument is the league average of 3.11 goals, as well as the fact that over 2.5 goals were scored in 92% of both teams' matches; therefore, Over 1.5 goals is the safest and strongest selection.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Vaprus have the clearer momentum signal: they have averaged 2.0 goals over their last five matches, compared with just 0.8 for Nõmme United, while the visitors have lost four of those five games. The hosts led at the break in 40% of their last five appearances, whereas Nõmme United have not led at half-time on any occasion and have scored just 0.2 goals per match in the first half. Vaprus’s advantage should grow after the interval, as they average 1.31 goals in the second half, while their opponents concede as many as 1.58 goals after the break. The hosts’ superior chance creation also supports a home win: their average xG is 1.65 compared with 1.27 for the visitors, and they average 4.92 shots on target to 3.33. Both defences are vulnerable to conceding, but Nõmme United’s weaker form and post-break problems make a Vaprus lead at half-time followed by a full-time win the most likely scenario.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Vaprus | Nõmme United | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 41% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Nõmme United is 22% better for: goals scored per match.
1.38 goals / match - Vaprus · 1.68 goals / match - Nõmme United
Vaprus is 25% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.92 goals / match - Vaprus · 2.4 goals / match - Nõmme United
Vaprus scores in 83% of matches (20 of 24 matches), while Nõmme United keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 25 matches).
Nõmme United scores in 84% of matches (21 of 25 matches), while Vaprus keeps a clean sheet in 21% (5 of 24 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Vaprus
Over / Under - Nõmme United
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Vaprus is 38% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.21 pts / match - Vaprus · 0.88 pts / match - Nõmme United
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Vaprus - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 33%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Nõmme United - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 20% of matches and wins 32%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -5 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -6 | -5 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (8 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (11 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (15). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Vaprus
Nõmme United
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Meistriliiga).
Teams vs league
| Vaprus | Liga | Nõmme United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.29 | 3.14 | ▲ 4.08 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 71% | 60% | ▲ 84% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 67% | 66% | ▲ 92% |
| Clean sheets | • 21% | 22% | ▼ 0% |
| Goal before half-time | • 75% | 76% | ▲ 92% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 88% | 90% | ▲ 96% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Vaprus 0 - 0 - 2 Nõmme United. Average goals 6.50, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Vaprus vs Nõmme United?
The Meistriliiga match finished Vaprus 1:0 Nõmme United. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Vaprus and Nõmme United?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Vaprus won 0, Nõmme United won 2 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 6.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Vaprus vs Nõmme United?
Vaprus score 1.38 goals per game on average and Nõmme United 1.68. The Meistriliiga average is 3.14 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 66% of games. Both teams score in 71% of Vaprus's matches and 84% of Nõmme United's.
What form are Vaprus and Nõmme United in?
Over the last 5 games Vaprus have a 0-2-3 record (0.40 points per game) and Nõmme United 0-0-5 (0.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Vaprus vs Nõmme United?
The statistical background for Vaprus vs Nõmme United — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.